National Ethnic Population Projections: 2001 (base) - 2021 update

Technical notes

Latest projections

This release contains updated 2001-base projections of the populations of European, Māori, Asian and Pacific ethnicities usually living in New Zealand. These updated series supersede the 2001-base series released in May-June 2003. The updated series cover the period 2002–2021 at one-year intervals, by sex and single year of age (to 90+ years) and incorporate the latest demographic information. The projection period is limited to 20 years because of the uncertainty of ethnic population projections as discussed in the Nature of projections section (below).

These ethnic population projections complement the projections of the New Zealand population (National Population Projections (2004(base) – 2051)), released on 16 December 2004. However, only Series 6 of the respective ethnic population projections and Series 5 of the New Zealand population projections are designed to be directly comparable. Other series cannot be directly compared because the projection assumptions may be incompatible.

It is also important to note that the ethnic populations discussed here are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population.

Ethnic concept

The ethnic concept used in these projections is the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is self-perceived and people can belong to more than one ethnic group. For example, people may identify with the Māori ethnicity even though they may not be descended from a Māori ancestor. Conversely, people may choose to not identify with the Māori ethnicity even though they are descended from a Māori ancestor. Ethnicity does not equate to a birthplace description.

The 2001 Census asked people "Which ethnic group do you belong to? Mark the space or spaces which apply to you". The census usually resident population count of 3,737,277 included 2,871,432 people who identified with a European ethnicity, 526,281 who identified with the Māori ethnicity, 238,176 who identified with an Asian ethnicity, 231,798 who identified with a Pacific ethnicity, 24,993 who identified with other ethnicities and 150,546 who gave no ethnic response. Of the 2,871,432 European people, 9 percent (261,024) also identified with non-European ethnicities, 86 percent (2,458,586) were born in New Zealand and 10 percent (277,437) were born in Europe (including the United Kingdom). Of the 526,281 Māori people, 44 percent (231,555) also identified with non-Māori ethnicities and 99 percent (513,126) were born in New Zealand. Of the 238,176 Asian people, 10 percent (24,615) also identified with non-Asian ethnicities, 22 percent (53,262) were born in New Zealand and 66 percent (156,678) were born in Asia. Of the 231,798 Pacific people, 29 percent (66,153) also identified with non-Pacific ethnicities, 58 percent (133,791) were born in New Zealand and 41 percent (94,992) were born elsewhere in Oceania (including Australia).

The European, Asian and Pacific populations are all diverse populations.

At the 2001 Census, the number of Europeans identifying with various European ethnic groups was: New Zealand European 2,696,724, English 35,082, Dutch/Netherlands 27,507, Australian 20,785, British not further defined 16,572, South African 14,913, Scottish 13,785, Irish 11,706, German 9,057, American (United States) 8,475 and other European groups 66,270. There were 43,719 people who identified with more than one European ethnicity (eg New Zealand European and German).

Among the Asian population at the 2001 Census, the number identifying with various Asian ethnic groups was: Chinese 105,057, Indian 62,187, Korean 19,026, Filipino 11,091, Japanese 10,026, Sri Lankan 7,014, Cambodian 5,268, Thai 4,554, Vietnamese 3,462, Indonesian 2,073, Malay 2,052 and other Asian groups 9,765. There were 4,605 people who identified with more than one Asian ethnicity (eg Chinese and Indian).

At the 2001 Census, the number of Pacific peoples identifying with various Pacific ethnic groups was: Samoan 115,017, Cook Island 52,569, Tongan 40,716, Niuean 20,148, Fijian 7,041, Tokelauan 6,204 and other Pacific groups 7,335. There were 15,549 people who identified with more than one Pacific ethnicity (eg Samoan and Tongan).

Base population

The European population projections have as a base the estimated resident population of European ethnicity of New Zealand at 30 June 2001. This population (3,074,000) was based on the census usually resident population count (2,871,432) at 6 March 2001 and adjusted for:

  1. non-response to the census ethnicity question (+114,000)
  2. net census undercount (+54,000)
  3. residents temporarily overseas on census night (+36,000)
  4. births, deaths and net migration between census night (6 March 2001) and 30 June 2001 (-3,000)
  5. reconciliation with demographic estimates at ages 0–9 years (+3,000).

The Māori population projections have as a base the estimated resident population of Māori ethnicity of New Zealand at 30 June 2001. This population (586,000) was based on the census usually resident population count (526,281) at 6 March 2001 and adjusted for:

  1. non-response to the census ethnicity question (+26,000)
  2. net census undercount (+26,000)
  3. residents temporarily overseas on census night (+5,000)
  4. births, deaths and net migration between census night (6 March 2001) and 30 June 2001 (+3,000)
  5. reconciliation with demographic estimates at ages 0–9 years (+1,000).

The Asian population projections have as a base the estimated resident population of Asian ethnicity of New Zealand at 30 June 2001. This population (272,500) was based on the census usually resident population count (238,176) at 6 March 2001 and adjusted for:

  1. non-response to the census ethnicity question (+10,400)
  2. net census undercount (+4,600)
  3. residents temporarily overseas on census night (+13,100)
  4. births, deaths and net migration between census night (6 March 2001) and 30 June 2001 (+5,900)
  5. reconciliation with demographic estimates at ages 0–9 years (+300).

The Pacific population projections have as a base the estimated resident population of Pacific ethnicity of New Zealand at 30 June 2001. This population (261,800) was based on the census usually resident population count (231,798) at 6 March 2001 and adjusted for:

  1. non-response to the census ethnicity question (+12,700)
  2. net census undercount (+11,400)
  3. residents temporarily overseas on census night (+4,100)
  4. births, deaths and net migration between census night (6 March 2001) and 30 June 2001 (+1,400)
  5. reconciliation with demographic estimates at ages 0–9 years (+400).

The estimated and projected resident populations are not directly comparable with census counts because of these adjustments. For more information about the base population, refer to "Information about the population estimates", on the Statistics New Zealand website (www.stats.govt.nz).

Alternative series

For each ethnic group, eleven alternative series have been produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. At the time of this release, projection Series 6 is considered the most suitable for assessing future population changes. The other projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from changes in the assumptions for each of the components of population change. Series 2, 6 and 10 can be used for assessing the effect of the different fertility assumptions; Series 3, 6 and 9 allow for a comparative mortality analysis; Series 4, 6 and 8 allow for alternative migration levels; and Series 5, 6 and 7 allow for different inter-ethnic mobility rates.

More detailed projection results, including projections for individual years or projections by age and sex, are available on request. Special projections can also be produced for clients using their own assumptions. For more information and quotes, email demography@stats.govt.nz or phone toll-free 0508 525 525.

Method

A special 'cohort component' method has been used to derive the population projections. The method differs from the conventional cohort component method in two respects:

For each ethnic group, births have been projected separately for women, and for men where the mother is not of that ethnic group.

The projections allow for population change due to inter-ethnic mobility or ethnic category jumping (ie people changing their ethnic identification over time).

In this method the base population is projected forward by calculating the effect of deaths, migration and inter-ethnic mobility within each age-sex group according to specified mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. New birth cohorts are generated by applying specified fertility assumptions to the female population of childbearing age, and specified paternity assumptions to the male population.

Projection assumptions

Projection assumptions are formulated after analysis of short- and long-term historical trends, recent trends and patterns observed in other countries, government policy, and other relevant information.

Fertility

European

There are three alternative fertility variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that fertility rates of European women will vary until the year 2016, when the total fertility rate will reach 1.55, 1.75 and 1.95 births per European woman, respectively. After 2016, it is assumed fertility rates will remain constant. The estimated base rate for 2000–2002 was 1.77 births per European woman.

There are three alternative paternity variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that paternity rates of European men with non-European women will vary until the year 2016, when the total paternity rate will reach 0.08, 0.13 and 0.18 births per European man, respectively. The three alternative paternity variants correspond to the three alternative fertility variants. After 2016, it is assumed paternity rates will remain constant. The estimated base rate for 2000–2002 was 0.13 births per European man.

The medium fertility variant assumes fertility rates of European women aged under 32 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, with rates increasing for women aged 32 years and over. The low fertility variant assumes fertility rates of women aged under 35 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, with rates increasing for women aged 35 years and over. The high fertility variant assumes fertility rates of women aged under 30 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, but the rates for women aged 30 years and over will increase.

The low and medium paternity variants assume paternity rates of European men of all ages will generally decline between 2001 and 2016. By comparison, the high paternity variant assumes paternity rates of men aged under 26 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, but the rates for men aged 26 years and over will increase.

An allowance is also made for births to European parent(s) that are not registered as European children. The low, medium and high variants assume that 2.4, 2.9 and 3.4 percent, respectively, of births to European parent(s) are non-European children.

Māori

There are three alternative fertility variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that fertility rates will vary until the year 2016, when the total fertility rate will reach 2.15, 2.40 and 2.65 births per Māori woman, respectively. After 2016, it is assumed fertility will remain constant. The estimated base rate in 2000–2002 was 2.59 births per Māori woman.

There are three alternative paternity variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that paternity rates of Māori men with non-Māori women will vary until the year 2016, when the total paternity rate will reach 0.70, 0.80 and 0.90 births per Māori man, respectively. The three alternative paternity variants correspond to the three alternative fertility variants. After 2016, it is assumed paternity rates will remain constant. The estimated base rate in 2000–2002 was 0.85 births per Māori man.

The medium fertility variant assumes fertility rates of Māori women aged under 31 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, with rates increasing for women aged 31 years and over. By comparison, the low fertility variant assumes fertility rates of women of most ages will generally decline between 2001 and 2016. The high fertility variant assumes fertility rates of women aged under 29 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, but the rates for women aged 29 years and over will increase.

The medium paternity variant assumes paternity rates of Māori men aged under 38 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, with rates increasing for men aged 38 years and over. The low paternity variant assumes paternity rates of men of all ages will decline between 2001 and 2011. By comparison, the high paternity variant assumes paternity rates of men aged under 33 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, but the rates for men aged 33 years and over will increase.

An allowance is also made for births to Māori parent(s) that are not registered as Māori children. The low, medium and high variants assume that 4.2, 4.8 and 5.4 percent, respectively, of births to Māori parent(s) are non-Māori children.

Asian

There are three alternative fertility variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that fertility rates will vary until the year 2016, when the total fertility rate will reach 1.35, 1.55 and 1.75 births per Asian woman, respectively. After 2016, it is assumed fertility rates will remain constant. The estimated base rate in 2000–2002 was 1.67 births per Asian woman.

There are three alternative paternity variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that paternity rates of Asian men with non-Asian women will vary until the year 2016, when the total paternity rate will reach 0.15, 0.20 and 0.25 births per Asian man, respectively. The three alternative paternity variants correspond to the three alternative fertility variants. After 2016, it is assumed paternity rates will remain constant. The estimated base rate 2000–2002 was 0.25 births per Asian man.

The medium fertility variant assumes fertility rates of Asian women aged under 31 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, with rates increasing for women aged 31 years and over. By comparison, the low fertility variant assumes fertility rates of women of most ages will generally decline between 2001 and 2016. The high fertility variant assumes fertility rates of women aged under 29 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, but the rates for women aged 29 years and over will increase.

The low and medium paternity variants assume paternity rates of Asian men of all ages will decline between 2001 and 2016. By comparison, the high paternity variant assumes paternity rates of men aged under 33 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, but the rates for men aged 33 years and over will increase.

An allowance is also made for births to Asian parent(s) which are not registered as Asian children. The low, medium and high variants assume that 2.4, 3.4 and 4.4 percent, respectively, of births to Asian parent(s) are non-Asian children.

Pacific

There are three alternative fertility variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that fertility rates will vary until the year 2016, when the total fertility rate will reach 2.45, 2.70 and 2.95 births per Pacific woman, respectively. After 2016, it is assumed fertility rates will remain constant. The estimated base rate in 2000–2002 was 2.94 births per Pacific woman.

There are three alternative paternity variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that paternity rates of Pacific men with non-Pacific women will vary until the year 2016, when the total paternity rate will reach 0.80, 0.90 and 1.00 births per Pacific man, respectively. The three alternative paternity variants correspond to the three alternative fertility variants. After 2016, it is assumed paternity rates will remain constant. The estimated base rate in 2000–2002 was 1.00 births per Pacific man.

The medium fertility variant assumes fertility rates of Pacific women aged under 36 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, with rates increasing for women aged 36 years and over. By comparison, the low fertility variant assumes fertility rates of women of most ages will generally decline between 2001 and 2016. The high fertility variant assumes fertility rates of women aged under 30 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, but the rates for women aged 30 years and over will increase.

The medium paternity variant assumes paternity rates of Pacific men aged under 39 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, with rates increasing slightly for men aged 39 years and over. The low paternity variant assumes paternity rates of men of all ages will decline between 2001 and 2016. The high paternity variant assumes paternity rates of men aged under 33 years will generally decline between 2001 and 2016, but the rates for men aged 33 years and over will increase.

An allowance is also made for births to Pacific parent(s) that are not registered as Pacific children. The low, medium and high variants assume that 3.0, 3.5 and 4.0 percent, respectively, of births to Pacific parent(s) are non-Pacific children.

All ethnicities

A sex ratio at birth of 105.5 males per 100 females is assumed, based on the historical annual average of the total population.

Graph, Assumed Total Fertility Rates by Ethnic Group.

Mortality

European

There are three alternative mortality variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that mortality rates will continue to drop so that the average life expectancy at birth for European males will increase to 82.7, 81.8 and 81.0 years, respectively, by 2021. The corresponding life expectancies for European females in 2021 will be 86.6, 86.0 and 85.3 years. The estimated base life expectancies in 2000–2002 were 77.4 years for males and 82.2 years for females.

Mortality rates are assumed to decrease at the same rate at most ages. Between 2001 and 2021, European male mortality rates are assumed to decrease by about 33, 28 and 22 percent for the low, medium and high mortality variants, respectively. By comparison, European female mortality rates are assumed to decrease by about 31, 26 and 21 percent for the low, medium and high mortality variants, respectively.

Māori

There are three alternative mortality variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that mortality rates will continue to drop so that the average life expectancy at birth for Māori males will increase to 77.1, 76.3 and 75.4 years, respectively, by 2021. The corresponding life expectancies for Māori females in 2021 will be 81.1, 80.3 and 79.4 years. The estimated base life expectancies in 2000–2002 were 69.0 years for males and 73.2 years for females.

Mortality rates are assumed to decrease at the same rate at most ages. Between 2001 and 2021, Māori male mortality rates are assumed to decrease by about 46, 42 and 38 percent for the low, medium and high mortality variants, respectively. By comparison, Māori female mortality rates are assumed to decrease by about 46, 42 and 38 percent for the low, medium and high mortality variants, respectively.

Asian

There are three alternative mortality variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that mortality rates will continue to drop so that the average life expectancy at birth for Asian males will increase to 83.0, 82.1 and 81.3 years, respectively, by 2021. The corresponding life expectancies for Asian females in 2021 will be 87.2, 86.5 and 85.8 years. The estimated base life expectancies in 2000–2002 were 78.0 years for males and 83.0 years for females.

Mortality rates are assumed to decrease at the same rate at most ages. Between 2001 and 2021, Asian male mortality rates are assumed to decrease by about 35, 30 and 25 percent for the low, medium and high mortality variants, respectively. By comparison, Asian female mortality rates are assumed to decrease by about 33, 28 and 23 percent for the low, medium and high mortality variants, respectively.

Pacific

There are three alternative mortality variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that mortality rates will continue to drop so that the average life expectancy at birth for Pacific males will increase to 78.9, 78.1 and 77.3 years, respectively, by 2021. The corresponding life expectancies for Pacific females in 2021 will be 83.4, 82.6 and 81.7 years. The estimated base life expectancies in 2000–2002 were 71.5 years for males and 76.7 years for females.

Mortality rates are assumed to decrease at the same rate at most ages. Between 2001 and 2021, Pacific male mortality rates are assumed to decrease by about 45, 41 and 36 percent for the low, medium and high mortality variants, respectively. By comparison, Pacific female mortality rates are assumed to decrease by about 42, 38 and 33 percent for the low, medium and high mortality variants, respectively.

All ethnicities

It is important to note that the objective of population projections is not to specifically measure or project the life expectancy of the population. For projection purposes it is more important to have a realistic yet tractable model for projecting mortality trends (and death numbers) into the future. Therefore, ethnic life expectancies at birth should not be used as a precise measure of ethnic mortality or of mortality differentials between ethnic groups.

 Graph, Assumed Male Life Expectancy at Birth by Ethnic Group.
Graph, Assumed Female Life Expectancy at Birth by Ethnic Group.

Migration

European

There are three alternative migration variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume long-term annual net migration of -10,000, -5,000 and zero, respectively. The medium migration variant assumes net migration of the European population of zero in the 2002 June year, 8,000 in 2003 and 6,000 in 2004. The low and high migration variants are 5,000 lower and higher, respectively, than the medium variant for each year.

The age-sex patterns of net migration assume net inflow at ages 29–33 years associated with returning New Zealanders. The highest net outflows are assumed at ages 20–26 years, being associated with New Zealanders embarking on overseas travel. Ethnicity is not collected in external migration data, but the assumed migration is based on an assessment of recent and expected trends of arrivals and departures of New Zealand citizens and non-New Zealand citizens by birthplace.

Māori

There are three alternative migration variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume annual net migration of the Māori population of -3,500, -2,500 and -1,500, respectively. The age-sex patterns of net migration assume a net outflow at all ages, with the highest net outflows at ages 18–27 years. Ethnicity is not collected in external migration data, but the assumed migration is based on an assessment of recent and expected trends of arrivals and departures of New Zealand citizens and non-New Zealand citizens.

Asian

There are three alternative migration variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume long-term annual net migration of 8,000, 14,000 and 20,000, respectively. The medium migration variant assumes net migration of the Asian population of 32,000 in the 2002 June year, 34,000 in 2003, 16,000 in 2004, 9,000 in 2005, 6,000 in 2006, 6,000 in 2007 and 10,000 in 2008. The low and high migration variants are 6,000 lower and higher, respectively, than the medium variant for each year.

The age-sex patterns of net migration assume net inflows at most ages, with the highest net inflows at ages 15–20 years associated with students arriving for educational purposes. After 2003, there is an increasing net outflow at ages 21–27 years associated with students returning overseas after studying in New Zealand and young New Zealanders embarking on overseas travel. Ethnicity is not collected in external migration data, but the assumed migration is based on an assessment of recent and expected trends of arrivals and departures of New Zealand citizens and non-New Zealand citizens by birthplace.

Pacific

There are three alternative migration variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume annual net migration of the Pacific population of zero, 500 and 1,000, respectively. The age-sex patterns of net migration assume net inflow at ages under 20 years and at 29–41 years. The highest net inflows are at ages 13–19 years and the highest net outflows at ages 21–27 years. Ethnicity is not collected in external migration data, but the assumed migration is based on an assessment of recent and expected trends of arrivals and departures of New Zealand citizens and non-New Zealand citizens.

Graph, Assumed Net Migration by Ethnic Group.

Inter-ethnic mobility

European

There are three alternative inter-ethnic mobility variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume annual net change to the European population of 0.2, zero and -0.2 percent, respectively. The age pattern of inter-ethnic mobility is applied to each sex and assumes the highest net mobility at ages 11–25 years.

Māori

There are three alternative inter-ethnic mobility variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume annual net change to the Māori population of zero, -0.3 percent and -0.6 percent, respectively. The age pattern of inter-ethnic mobility is applied to each sex and assumes the highest net mobility at ages 11–25 years.

Comparisons of demographic estimates and census populations during 1966–1991 suggest that inter-ethnic mobility resulted in a loss from the Māori population of between 0.3 and 0.9 percent per year. However, changes to the ethnicity question between the 1991, 1996 and 2001 Censuses make it difficult to measure inter-ethnic mobility during 1991–1996 and 1996–2001. In recent years there has been greater awareness of Māori issues which may have increased the propensity of people to identify with Māori ethnicity. Therefore, the 2001-base projections assume inter-ethnic mobility loss from the Māori population to continue, but at a lower rate than in previous projection series.

Asian

There are three alternative inter-ethnic mobility variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume annual net change to the Asian population of zero, -0.2 and -0.4 percent, respectively. The age pattern of inter-ethnic mobility is applied to each sex and assumes the highest net mobility at ages 11–25 years.

Pacific

There are three alternative inter-ethnic mobility variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume annual net change to the Pacific population of zero, -0.2 and -0.4 percent, respectively. The age pattern of inter-ethnic mobility is applied to each sex and assumes the highest net mobility at ages 11–25 years.

Nature of projections

Demographic projections are designed to meet both short-term and long-term planning needs, but are not designed to be exact forecasts or to project specific annual variation. These projections are based on assumptions made about future fertility, mortality, net migration, and inter-ethnic mobility patterns of the population. Although the assumptions are carefully formulated to represent future trends, they are subject to uncertainty. Therefore, the projections should be used as guidelines and an indication of the overall trend, rather than as exact forecasts.

The projections do not take into account non-demographic factors (eg war, catastrophes, major government and business decisions) which may invalidate the projections. Demographic trends are monitored regularly and, when it is necessary, the projections are revised to reflect new trends and to maintain their relevance and usefulness.

Projections of ethnic populations are more uncertain than projections of the total population for several reasons:

  1. Unlike other demographic characteristics such as age and sex, ethnicity can change over time. This may occur because of different people responding to the ethnicity question. For example, the ethnicity of babies and young children is usually identified initially by their parents. However, in a later census when these children are old enough to complete their own forms, they will decide for themselves which ethnicity they identify with. This may differ from the original ethnicity identified by their parents.
  2. There are greater difficulties in establishing past trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Different ethnicities can be reported in different collections (eg birth registration form, death registration form, census form), which makes the derivation of ethnic-specific fertility and mortality rates problematic. Furthermore, the measurement of ethnicity has changed over time in many collections, while it is not captured at all in some collections (eg external migration data).
  3. Ethnic populations are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People are not asked to prioritise their ethnic responses. Hence, Statistics New Zealand includes people in each of their reported ethnic groups.
  4. There is the added complication of births to parents of different ethnicity. The child may be considered by the parents to belong to one or more of their ethnicities, or indeed to another ethnicity.
  5. There is greater future uncertainty about the components of population change. For example, it is uncertain whether the fertility and mortality of different ethnicities will converge, and if so, at what pace. Assumptions about future migration, notably for people of Asian and Pacific ethnicities, are particularly susceptible to changes in immigration policy.

Statistics New Zealand incorporates these issues into its methodology for ethnic population projections and develops alternative projection scenarios to illustrate uncertainty. However, it is because of these issues that Statistics New Zealand does not currently attempt to project the population of ethnicities other than the broad Māori, Pacific, Asian and European ethnic groups.

For more information about the projections, refer to "Information about the demographic projections" on the Statistics New Zealand website (www.stats.govt.nz).

Definitions

The estimated resident population of New Zealand is an estimate of all people who usually live in New Zealand at a given date. It includes all residents present in New Zealand and counted by the census (census usually resident population count), residents who are temporarily overseas (who are not included in the census), and an adjustment for residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount). Visitors from overseas are excluded.

Inter-ethnic mobility refers to people changing their ethnic identification over time. This may occur because of different people responding to the ethnicity question. For example, the ethnicity of babies and young children are identified initially by their parents. However, in a later census when these children are old enough to complete their own forms, they will decide for themselves which ethnicity they identify with. This may differ from the original ethnicity identified by their parents. Inter-ethnic mobility can also occur when different ethnicities are reported in different collections (eg birth registration form, death registration form, census form).

Life expectancy is the average length of life remaining at a given age. As derived from a period life table, it assumes that a person experiences the age-specific mortality rates of a given period from the given age onwards. It represents the average longevity of the whole population and does not necessarily reflect the longevity of an individual.

Replacement fertility generally refers to a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, which equates to the average number of children per woman that is required for the population to replace itself in the long-term. The rate allows for the sex ratio at birth (roughly 105 males born for every 100 females) and for some mortality of females between birth and childbearing.

The resident population concept is a statistical basis for a population in terms of those who usually live in a given area at a given time. The census usually resident population count is a census measure of the resident population concept, and the estimated resident population is a demographic measure of the resident population concept. In terms of vital statistics, the resident population concept refers to events that relate to residents of New Zealand only.

The total fertility rate is the average number of live births that a woman would have during her life if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates of a given period (usually a year).

The total paternity rate, for example, as used in the European population projections, is the average number of live births that a European man would have with non-European women during his life.

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