Alternative projection series
For each ethnicity (European, Māori, Asian and Pacific), eleven alternative series of population projections have been produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. These series are neither predictions nor forecasts. The projections provide an indication of possible future changes in the size, growth rate and age-sex structure of the European, Māori, Asian and Pacific populations. The series have as a base the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2001, and cover the period 2002–2021.
Each ethnic population consists of all people who identify with that ethnicity, including those who also identify with other ethnicities. It is important to note that these ethnic populations are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population they identify with.
The European population is projected to increase from 3.07 million at 30 June 2001 to 3.23 million in 2021 (according to Series 6, which assumes medium fertility, medium mortality, medium migration and medium inter-ethnic mobility). Under Series 1 (low fertility, high mortality, low migration, and high inter-ethnic mobility), the European population will be less in 2021 (2.90 million) than in 2001. All other series are projected to have higher European populations in 2021 than in 2001, with Series 11 (high fertility, low mortality, high migration, and low inter-ethnic mobility) projecting the highest population in 2021, at 3.58 million.
The Māori, Asian and Pacific populations are projected to increase during the projection period under all series. The Māori population is projected to increase from 590,000 at 30 June 2001 to between 660,000 (Series 1) and 870,000 (Series 11) in 2021. The Asian population from 270,000 in 2001 to between 490,000 (Series 1) and 860,000 (Series 11). The Pacific population from 260,000 in 2001 to between 370,000 (Series 1) and 460,000 (Series 11).
Which projection series to use?
A number of projection series have been produced to illustrate a range of possible scenarios. Users can make their own judgement as to which projection series is/are most suitable for their purposes. However, at the time of release, Statistics New Zealand considers projection Series 6 the most suitable for assessing future population changes. Series 6 of the ethnic population projections is consistent with mid-range Series 5 of the national population projections (2004-base, released December 2004).
Series 6 makes the following assumptions:
- Fertility: For all ethnicities, the total fertility rate and total paternity rate will vary until 2016 and there after remain constant. By 2016, the total fertility rate will be 1.75 births per woman for European women, 2.40 for Māori women, 1.55 for Asian women, and 2.70 for Pacific women. At the same time the total paternity rate (births where the father is of the specified ethnicity, but the mother is not) will be 0.13 children per man for European men, 0.80 for Māori men, 0.20 for Asian men, and 0.90 for Pacific men.
- Mortality: Life expectancy at birth will increase for all ethnicities. Life expectancy will increase for the European population by about four years to 81.8 years for males and 86.0 years for females by 2021, for the Māori population by about seven years to 76.3 years for males and 80.3 years for females, for the Pacific population by about six years to 78.1 years for males and 82.6 years for females, and for the Asian population by about four years to 82.1 years for males and 86.5 years for females.
- Migration: There will be long-term annual net migration levels of -5,000 for the European population (from 2005), -2,500 for the Māori population (from 2002), 500 for the Pacific population (from 2002), and 14,000 for the Asian population (from 2009).
- Inter-ethnic mobility: For the European population there will be zero net inter-ethnic mobility due to people changing their ethnic identity, for the Māori population -0.3 percent, for the Asian population -0.2 percent, and for the Pacific population -0.2 percent.
The following analysis is based on Series 6 of the ethnic population projections, unless otherwise stated.
What has changed from the previous 2001-base projections?
These ethnic population projections have been updated to incorporate the latest national population projections (released 16 December 2004). The ethnic population projections also make adjustments for the latest demographic information, including birth and death registrations to December 2004.
Compared with the earlier ethnic population projections released in May–June 2003, the mid-range Series 6 of the updated ethnic population projections assumes:
- that the fertility levels will vary until the long-term fertility levels are reached in 2016, then stay constant. By comparison, the original ethnic population projections assumed the long-term fertility levels would be reached in 2011. Fertility levels for 2002–2004 have been adjusted to incorporate the latest birth registrations. The earlier projections under-estimated the number of births for this period.
- the life expectancy at birth in 2021 has been marginally increased for all ethnic groups, with the gap between males and females reducing.
- the net migration levels for European and Asian populations have been changed to reflect the increased net migration levels in the 2004-base national population projections. European net migration increases to a long-term level of -5,000 per year, compared to the previous level of -8,000 per year. The Asian net migration initially varies until 2009, when the long-term level of 14,000 per year is reached. The original Asian population projections had net migration reducing (by 500 per year) from 12,000 in 2007 to 5,000 in 2021.
The combined effect of these changes is that the updated ethnic population projections have the European population at 3.23 million, Māori at 760,000, the Asian population at 670,000 and the Pacific population at 420,000 in 2021. By comparison, the original projections had the European population at 3.10 million, the Māori population at 750,000, the Asian population at 600,000 and the Pacific population at 410,000 in 2021.
Summary
The ethnic mosaic of New Zealand's population is changing with the Māori, Pacific and Asian populations making up a growing proportion of the overall New Zealand population. This reflects past and likely future differentials in fertility, as well as the impact of growing miscegenation (intermarriage) and changes in immigration policy. In addition, the Māori, Pacific and Asian populations have a more youthful age structure and thus a greater built-in momentum for growth than the European population. Coupled with higher fertility for Māori and Pacific people, and the assumed net migration levels for Asian people, these ethnic groups are likely to grow at a much faster pace than their European counterparts.
All ethnic groups will age in the coming decades. However, even two decades on, the Māori and Pacific populations will still have a younger age structure than the current New Zealand population.
Population growth
All four ethnic populations are projected to experience growth between 2001 and 2021. The Asian population is projected to have the largest percentage growth, up about 145 percent from 270,000 in 2001 to 670,000 in 2021. The Pacific and Māori populations will experience increases of 59 and 29 percent, respectively. By 2021, the Māori population will number almost 760,000 compared with 590,000 in 2001, while the Pacific population will number 420,000 compared with 260,000 in 2001. The European population will increase by 5 percent from 3.07 million in 2001 to 3.23 million in 2021.
In comparison, the total New Zealand population will increase by 18 percent between 2001 and 2021, with the population projected to grow from 3.9 million to almost 4.6 million (assuming medium fertility, medium mortality and long-term annual net migration of 10,000 per year).
All ethnic groups are projected to experience slowing population growth over the projection period, with the annual growth rate of the European population decreasing to almost zero by 2021. Rapid growth in the Asian population between 2001 and 2006 is mainly due to large net migration gains, with smaller net migration gains, and therefore slower population growth, assumed for later periods.
Annual Population Growth Rates
Selected ethnic groups
Series 6 |
The Māori, Asian and Pacific populations will all increase their share of the New Zealand population over the projection period. The Māori population will make up 16.5 percent of the New Zealand population by 2021 compared with 15.1 percent in 2001. The Asian population will make up 14.5 percent of the New Zealand population by 2021 compared with 7.0 percent in 2001. The Pacific population will make up 9.1 percent of the New Zealand population by 2021 compared with 6.7 percent in 2001.
The increase in the Māori and Pacific population shares is largely driven by their higher fertility rates and their larger proportions in the main childbearing ages. About one-quarter of Māori and Pacific births are contributed by non-Māori women where the father is Māori, and non-Pacific women where the father is Pacific, respectively. The increase in the Asian share is mainly driven by the assumed levels of net migration.
The European population will make up 70 percent of the New Zealand population by 2021 compared with 79 percent in 2001. The lower than average European growth rate is driven by their lower fertility rates, the assumed net migration loss for most years of the projection period and the older age structure of the European population.
Ethnic Share of New Zealand Population(1)(2)
By age group
2001 and 2021 |
| Age Group (years) |
Ethnic Share of New Zealand Population (percent) |
| |
European |
Māori |
Asian |
Pacific |
| 2001(base) |
| 0-14 |
74 |
25 |
7 |
11 |
| 15-39 |
75 |
17 |
9 |
8 |
| 40-64 |
83 |
10 |
6 |
4 |
| 65 and over |
92 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
| All ages |
79 |
15 |
7 |
7 |
| 2021 |
| 0-14 |
63 |
28 |
17 |
17 |
| 15-39 |
64 |
20 |
16 |
11 |
| 40-64 |
71 |
12 |
15 |
6 |
| 65 and over |
86 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
| All ages |
70 |
17 |
15 |
9 |
(1) Ethnic population projections from Series 6. New Zealand population projections from Series 5 (2004-base).
(2) People who identify with more than one ethnicity are included in each ethnic population they identify with.
Births and deaths
European births are expected to decrease from 40,000 in 2005 to 33,000 in 2017, and then slowly increase to 34,000 in 2021. The decrease in births is driven mainly by the decline in the number of European women in the childbearing ages. About 7 percent of European births are contributed by non-European women where the father is European. European deaths are expected to increase from 23,000 in 2005 to 28,000 in 2021, due to more European people at older ages. Natural increase (excess of births over deaths) is projected to decline steadily, from 17,000 in 2005 to 6,000 in 2021.
Māori births are expected to fall slightly from 16,000 in 2005 to 15,800 in 2016, and then increase to 16,700 in 2021. This is due to the increase in the number of Māori moving into the childbearing ages, which more than offsets the assumed decline in fertility. Māori deaths are expected to increase from 2,600 in 2005 to 3,400 in 2021, due to more Māori at older ages. Natural increase is projected to vary over the projection period. Under projection Series 6, natural increase will drop from 13,400 in 2005 to 12,700 in 2016, before rising gradually to 13,300 in 2021.
Asian births are expected to increase from 6,500 in 2005 to 7,800 in 2021. The increase in births is driven by more Asian women in the childbearing ages. About 12 percent of Asian births are contributed by non-Asian women where the father is Asian. Asian deaths are expected to increase from 800 in 2005 to 1,900 in 2021, due to more Asian people at older ages. Natural increase is projected to vary over the projection period. Under projection Series 6, natural increase will initially increase, from 5,700 in 2005 to 6,300 in 2013. Then it will steadily decline to 5,800 in 2021. The Asian ethnic group is the only ethnic group where net migration is projected to contribute more than natural increase to population growth.
Pacific births are expected to increase from 8,600 in 2005 to 10,300 in 2021. This is due to the increase in the number of Pacific people moving into the childbearing ages, which more than offsets the assumed decline in fertility. Pacific deaths are expected to increase from 900 in 2005 to 1,400 in 2021, due to more Pacific people at older ages. Natural increase is projected to vary over the projection period. Under projection Series 6, natural increase will average around 7,700 each year during 2005–2009, before rising gradually to 9,000 in 2021.
Ageing population
All populations are projected to age over the next two decades.
The European population will continue to have an older age structure than the overall New Zealand population because of lower European fertility rates and the net migration outflow (especially at ages 20–26 years). Half of the European population will be older than 44.3 years by 2021, compared with a median age of 36.9 years in 2001. In comparison, the median age of the New Zealand population will rise from 34.7 to 40.3 years over the same period.
The Māori population will continue to have a much younger age structure than the overall New Zealand population because of higher Māori birth rates. Half of the Māori population will be older than 26.4 years by 2021, compared with a median age of 22.1 years in 2001.
The Asian population will continue to have a younger age structure than the overall New Zealand population, mainly because of immigration. Half of the Asian population will be older than 36.2 years by 2021, compared with a median age of 28.6 years in 2001.
The Pacific population will continue to have a much younger age structure than the overall New Zealand population because of higher Pacific birth rates. Half of the Pacific population will be older than 23.7 years by 2021, compared with a median age of 21.4 years in 2001.
Projected Age Distribution of Ethnic Groups
2001(base) and 2021 |
| Ethnicity(1) |
Projected Age Distribution of Ethnic Groups |
Median Age
(years) |
| |
0-14 |
15-39 |
40-64 |
65 and over |
All ages |
|
| 2001(base) |
| European |
21 |
34 |
31 |
14 |
100 |
36.9 |
| Māori |
37 |
40 |
20 |
3 |
100 |
22.1 |
| Asian |
23 |
48 |
26 |
4 |
100 |
28.6 |
| Pacific |
38 |
40 |
18 |
3 |
100 |
21.4 |
| Total NZ |
23 |
36 |
30 |
12 |
100 |
34.7 |
| 2021 |
| European |
16 |
29 |
33 |
22 |
100 |
44.3 |
| Māori |
30 |
38 |
24 |
7 |
100 |
26.4 |
| Asian |
21 |
36 |
35 |
8 |
100 |
36.2 |
| Pacific |
33 |
39 |
22 |
6 |
100 |
23.7 |
| Total NZ |
18 |
32 |
33 |
17 |
100 |
40.3 |
(1) Ethnic population projections from Series 6. 'Total NZ' from 2004-base national population projections Series 5.
Note: Owing to rounding, individual figures may not sum to give the stated totals.
Children
The number of European children (aged 0–14 years) is projected to decrease by 20 percent during the projection period, from 653,000 in 2001 to 521,000 in 2021. Over the same period, children will make up a smaller proportion of the European population, dropping from 21 percent to 16 percent. This smaller proportion is due to the decrease in the number of births and the gradual ageing of the European population.
The number of Māori children is projected to increase 6 percent, from 216,000 in 2001 to 230,000 in 2021. Children will make up a smaller proportion of the Māori population, dropping from 37 percent in 2001 to 30 percent in 2021. This is due to the projected decline in the Māori birth rate and the gradual ageing of the Māori population.
The number of Asian children is projected to more than double, from 61,000 in 2001 to 137,000 in 2021. However, children will make up a smaller proportion of the Asian population, dropping from 23 percent in 2001 to 21 percent in 2021. This smaller proportion is due to the projected decline in the Asian birth rate, the age pattern of Asian immigration and the gradual ageing of the Asian population.
The number of Pacific children is projected to rise steadily, increasing by 39,000 to 139,000 in 2021. Children will make up a smaller proportion of the Pacific population, dropping from 38 percent in 2001 to 33 percent in 2021. This is due to the projected decline in the Pacific birth rate and the gradual ageing of the Pacific population.
The ethnic composition of New Zealand children will change over the projection period. European children will make up 63 percent of New Zealand children in 2021, compared with 74 percent in 2001. Māori children will make up about 28 percent in 2021, compared with 25 percent in 2001. Asian children will make up about 17 percent in 2021, compared with 7 percent in 2001. Pacific children will make up about 17 percent in 2021, compared with 11 percent in 2001.
Working-age population
The European working-age population (defined as those aged 15–64 years) is projected to increase initially, from 2.00 million in 2001 to 2.08 million in 2010, and then decline to 2.01 million in 2021. People in the working ages will make up 62 percent of the European population in 2021, down slightly from 65 percent in 2001. Within this group, the population aged 15–39 years is expected to decrease from 1.04 million in 2001 to 0.94 million in 2021, a drop of 98,000 or 9 percent. In 2021, 29 percent of the European population will be aged 15–39 years, compared with 34 percent in 2001.
In contrast, the number of Europeans aged 40–64 years is projected to increase by 150,000 between 2001 and 2014, from 0.96 million to 1.11 million. After 2014, their number will decline to 1.07 million in 2021. This age group accounted for 31 percent of the European population in 2001, and is expected to increase slightly to 33 percent in 2021. The contrasting trends of the 15–39 and 40–64 age groups reflect the ageing of the large birth cohorts of the 1950s to 1970s.
The Māori working-age population is projected to increase from 350,000 in 2001 to 473,000 in 2021, an increase of 35 percent. They will make up 62 percent of the Māori population in 2021, up slightly from 60 percent in 2001. Most of the increase in the Māori working-age population will be in the second half of this age group, as the population takes on an older profile. The population aged 40–64 years is expected to increase from 115,000 in 2001 to 185,000 in 2021, an increase of 62 percent. In 2021, 24 percent of the Māori population will be aged 40–64 years, compared with 20 percent in 2001.
The number of Māori people aged 15–39 years is projected to increase by 22 percent between 2001 and 2021, from 236,000 to 287,000. This age group accounted for 40 percent of the Māori population in 2001, but is expected to drop slightly to 38 percent in 2021.
The Asian working-age population is projected to more than double from 200,000 in 2001 to 474,000 in 2021. They will make up 71 percent of the Asian population in 2021, down slightly from 73 percent in 2001. Within this group, the Asian population aged 15–39 years is expected to increase from 130,000 in 2001 to 240,000 in 2021, with much of the gain from immigration. In 2021, 36 percent of the Asian population will be aged 15–39 years, compared with 48 percent in 2001.
The number of Asian people aged 40–64 years is projected to more than treble between 2001 and 2021, from 70,000 to 234,000. This age group accounted for 26 percent of the Asian population in 2001, but is expected to increase to 35 percent in 2021.
The Pacific working-age population is projected to increase from 153,000 in 2001 to 253,000 in 2021, an increase of 65 percent. They will make up 61 percent of the Pacific population in 2021, up from 58 percent in 2001. The Pacific population aged 15–39 years is expected to increase from 106,000 in 2001 to 162,000 in 2021, an increase of 53 percent. In 2021, 39 percent of the Pacific population will be aged 15–39 years, compared with 40 percent in 2001.
The number of Pacific people aged 40–64 years is projected to almost double between 2001 and 2021, from 47,000 to 90,000. This age group accounted for 18 percent of the Pacific population in 2001, but is expected to increase to 22 percent in 2021
The ethnic composition of New Zealand's working-age population is projected to have a greater concentration of Māori, Asian and Pacific people in the future. Māori will increase their share from 14 percent in 2001 to 16 percent in 2021, the Asian share will increase from 8 percent to 16 percent, while the Pacific share will increase from 6 percent to 9 percent. Over the same time the European share will drop from 78 percent to 68 percent.
Among the younger workers (aged 15–39 years) the Māori share is projected to be 20 percent in 2021, up from 17 percent in 2001, the Asian share 16 percent in 2021, up from 9 percent, and the Pacific share 11 percent in 2021, up from 8 percent. In contrast the European share will be 64 percent by 2021, compared with 75 percent in 2001. A similar trend emerges for the older workers (aged 40–64 years).
Population aged 65 years and over
The population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase significantly for all ethnicities.
The number of European people aged 65 years and over is projected to reach 695,000 by 2021, up from 426,000 in 2001. In 2021, they will make up 22 percent of the European population, compared with 14 percent in 2001. The European population aged 65 years and over will outnumber the European population aged 0–14 years by 2014.
The number of Māori people aged 65 years and over is projected to reach 56,000 by 2021, almost three times the 2001 population of 20,000. In 2021, they will make up 7 percent of the Māori population, compared with 3 percent in 2001.
The number of Asian people aged 65 years and over is projected to reach 56,000 by 2021, five times the 2001 population of 11,000. In 2021, they will make up 8 percent of the Asian population, compared with 4 percent in 2001.
The number of Pacific people aged 65 years and over is projected to reach 26,000 by 2021, almost three times the 2001 population of 9,000. In 2021, they will make up 6 percent of the Pacific population, compared with 3 percent in 2001.
The New Zealand population aged 65 years and over is comprised mainly of European people, partly due to their higher life expectancy. In 2001, the European share was 92 percent. This is projected to drop to 86 percent in 2021. In contrast, the Māori, Asian and Pacific shares are all projected to increase. By 2021, the Māori share will be 7 percent, up from 4 percent in 2001, the Asian share will also be 7 percent, up from 2 percent, and the Pacific share will be 3 percent, up from 2 percent.
For technical information contact:
Rino Adair or Gillian Smeith
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: demography@stats.govt.nz