Live births
There were 64,160 live births registered in New Zealand in the March 2009 year, up 910 (1 percent) from the March 2008 year. The latest figure is 10 percent higher than the average of 58,470 births per year over the last decade, when the number of births varied from a low of 54,660 in the March 2003 year to this year's high of 64,160.
The highest number of births registered in any March year was 65,800 in 1962. At that time New Zealand's population numbered just 2.5 million, compared with 4.3 million in 2009.
During the March 2009 year, the births of 33,250 boys and 30,910 girls were registered to mothers resident in New Zealand. Normally, there are more boys born than girls, with an average of 105 boys born for every 100 girls.
Live births registered in the March 2009 quarter totalled 15,560, a decrease of 180 (1 percent) compared with the March 2008 quarter (15,740).
Annual fertility rates
Annual fertility rates for the March 2009 year indicate that New Zealand women averaged 2.18 births per woman, up from 2.15 in the March 2008 year and equal to the most recent peak in the March 1991 year. The level required by a population to replace itself in the long term, without migration, is 2.1 births per woman. However, fertility rates of close to or higher than 2.1 births per woman need to be sustained over many years before 'replacement level' fertility can be claimed. Since 1980, fertility in New Zealand has been slightly below the replacement level, with the exception of short periods around 1990 and the present.
Despite the recent upturn, New Zealand's total fertility rate has been relatively stable over the last three decades, averaging 2.01 births per woman. During this period, the total fertility rate varied from 1.90 to 2.18 births per woman. In contrast, during 1950–1979 women averaged 3.39 births, with the fertility rate peaking at 4.31 births per woman in 1961 and then dropping to 2.12 by 1979. (Total fertility rates for 1950–1979 are based on December years).
A number of other low-fertility countries have experienced slight recoveries in their fertility rates in recent years, including Australia (up from 1.7 births per woman in 2001 to 1.9 in 2007), England and Wales (up from 1.6 in 2001 to 1.9 in 2007), Norway (up from 1.8 in 2002 to 2.0 in 2008), Scotland (up from 1.5 in 2002 to 1.7 in 2007) and Sweden (up from 1.5 in 1999 to 1.9 in 2008).
Fertility rates and mother's age
In the March 2009 year, 88 percent of babies were born to mothers aged 20–39 years. Compared with the March 2008 year, there were more births to women in most age groups, except those aged under 15 years and those 30–34 years. In the March 2009 year, women aged 30–34 years still had the highest fertility rate (125 births per 1,000 women aged 30–34 years), followed by those aged 25–29 years (112 per 1,000) and 20–24 years (79 per 1,000). In 1969, women aged 20–24 years had the highest fertility rate (213 per 1,000), followed by those aged 25–29 years (206 per 1,000) and 30–34 years (107 per 1,000).
Fertility rates for all age groups increased between the 1999 and 2009 March years, except for women aged under 15 and between 25–29 years. Those aged 30 years and over experienced the biggest increases, with the fertility rate up 16 percent for those aged 30–34 and 48 percent for those aged 35–39. Fertility rates for women aged 40–44 years dropped from around 20 births per 1,000 in the early 1960s to around 4 per 1,000 in the mid-1980s, before increasing to 14 births per 1,000 in 2009. Among women aged 40–44 years who registered a baby in the March 2009 year, around two-thirds were aged 40 or 41 years. In the March 2009 year, the fertility rate for women aged 15–19 years was 32 births per 1,000, half the 1969 rate (65 per 1,000). Among women aged 15–19 years who registered a baby in the March 2009 year, around two-thirds were aged 18 or 19 years.
On average, New Zealand women now have children about five years later than their counterparts in the mid-1960s. The median age (half are younger and half older than this age) of New Zealand women giving birth is now 30 years, compared with 25 years in 1969. Although there has been a significant increase in the median age since the 1970s, it has been relatively stable in the past decade. The small drop since the March 2006 year is not necessarily indicative of a reversal in the trend towards older childbearing, but reflects changes in age structure within the childbearing age group. The median age of women aged 15–39 years has dropped by one year since 2002.
Mother's age at first birth
The median age of women giving birth to their first child (based on children in the current relationship only) was 28 years in the year ended March 2009 and has been relatively stable over the last decade. In 2009, women aged 20–24 years made up 23 percent of women having their first birth, compared with 13 percent of women who had had a previous birth. Just over one-quarter (26 percent) of first-time mothers were aged 25–29 years and 23 percent were aged 30–34 years, whereas the comparable figures for women who had had a previous birth were 23 and 32 percent, respectively.
Births by ethnicity
The 2006 Census showed that 10 percent of the census usually resident population identified with more than one ethnic group. Birth registrations for the March 2009 year show that 13 percent of mothers and 25 percent of babies identified with more than one ethnic group. This suggests that younger generations are becoming increasingly multicultural. Two-thirds of Māori babies and one-half of Pacific babies belonged to multiple ethnic groups, compared with just under one-third of babies within the European and Asian ethnic groups.
In the March 2009 year, the European ethnic group gained 44,380 babies, Māori 18,940, Pacific peoples 10,250, Asian 7,290, MELAA (Middle Eastern, Latin American and African) 1,150 and Other (including New Zealanders) 540.
The total fertility rate for Māori women in the March 2009 year was 2.96 births per woman, up from 2.87 in 2008 and 2.60 in 1999, and well above the rate for the total population (2.18 births per woman). In the March 2009 year, there were 14,910 live births registered to Māori women. Māori women giving birth tend to be younger, with a median age of 26 years in the March 2009 year. The median age for Pacific, Asian and European women was 27, 30 and 31 years, respectively.
Regional births
The Auckland region had the highest number of births in the March 2009 year (22,960), accounting for 36 percent of all live births registered in New Zealand. This region was followed by Canterbury (7,310), Wellington (7,050) and Waikato (6,410). Together, these four regions accounted for just over two-thirds of all live births registered in the March 2009 year. This is consistent with their share of New Zealand's estimated resident population.
Births increased in 12 regions during the March 2009 year when compared with the March 2008 year. The regions with the highest percentage increases were West Coast (up 13 percent) and Gisborne (up 11 percent). Wellington had the highest numerical increase (up 310), followed by Waikato (up 200).
Deaths
Deaths registered during the March 2009 year totalled 29,150, up from 28,300 in the March 2008 year. There were 14,490 male deaths and 14,660 female deaths. The number of deaths has gradually increased over time due to population growth, particularly in the older ages, partly offset by longer life expectancy. Fifty years ago, in the March 1959 year, deaths numbered 20,380. The number of deaths increased by one-fifth over the following ten years, to 24,460 in 1969, but the rate of growth since has been slower. Statistics New Zealand's mid-range population projections (series 5) indicate deaths will continue to increase, surpassing 40,000 in 2031, 50,000 in 2042, and 60,000 in 2056.
Deaths continue to be increasingly concentrated in the older age groups. The median age at death in the March 2009 year was 77 years for males and 83 years for females, compared with 71 for males and 78 for females in 1989. Only 5 percent of the deceased were aged under 40 years in the March 2009 year, compared with 9 percent in 1989.
The crude death rate (deaths per 1,000 mean estimated resident population) is influenced by the age structure of the population, and therefore does not provide a true measure of the trends in mortality. For example, the crude death rate for the Māori population (4.5) was much lower than for the total population (6.8) in the March 2009 year. This lower rate is due to the much younger age structure of the Māori population.
Age-standardised death rates provide an alternative summary of the mortality experience of populations with very different age structures. They are calculated by applying the age-specific death rates of the subject populations to a standard population, in this case the mean estimated population for the December 1961 year. On this basis, the standard death rate for the Māori population (7.1 deaths per 1,000 mean estimated population) was much higher than that for the total population (4.1) in the March 2009 year. Standardised death rates for both the Māori and total populations have dropped over the last 10 years, down from 9.3 and 5.1 per 1,000 in the December 1999 year. (Standardised death rates for March years are not available before 2002.)
It is important to note that standardised death rates can only be used to compare mortality trends for populations that have been standardised against the same standard population. Life tables give a more accurate and detailed description of the mortality experience across populations and time.
Life expectancy
According to the New Zealand abridged period life table for 2006–08, a newborn girl can be expected to live, on average, 82.2 years, and a newborn boy, 78.2 years. These levels represent longevity gains since 2000–02 of 1.1 years for females and 1.9 years for males. While female life expectancy is still higher than male life expectancy, the longevity gap has narrowed from 6.4 years in 1975–77 to 4.0 years in 2006–08. Since 1975–77, life expectancy at birth has increased by 6.8 years for females and 9.2 years for males.
Abridged period life tables are produced annually for the total population only. Complete life tables are produced for the Māori, non-Māori and total populations every five years. The latest complete life tables, New Zealand Life Tables: 2005–07, show that Māori life expectancy was 75.1 years for females and 70.4 years for males in 2005–07.
Life tables for other ethnicities, such as the broad Pacific and Asian ethnic groups, have not been produced because of the small number of death registrations and uncertainty associated with ethnic identification and measurement.
Infant mortality
During the March 2009 year, the number of infant deaths (under one year of age) registered in New Zealand totalled 300. The infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births) has dropped over the last 40 years. In the March 2009 year, the infant mortality rate was 4.7 per 1,000, down from 5.7 in the March 1999 year and 18.4 in 1969. The Māori infant mortality rate was 5.9 per 1,000 in the March 2009 year, down from 27.2 in 1969.
Neonatal deaths (under four weeks of age) made up 60 percent of infant deaths in the March 2009 year. The neonatal mortality rate (neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births) was 2.8 in 2009, down from 3.2 in 1999. The post-neonatal mortality rate (infant deaths over 27 days of age per 1,000 live births) also dropped, from 2.5 in 1999 to 1.9 per 1,000 in 2009.
Australia has also experienced a drop in infant mortality rates in the last decade. In the December 1997 year, New Zealand's infant mortality rate was 6.5 per 1,000 live births, compared with 5.3 per 1,000 in Australia. By 2007, New Zealand's infant mortality rate had dropped to 4.9 per 1,000 and Australia's rate had dropped to 4.2 per 1,000.
Scotland (4.7 per 1,000 live births), and England and Wales (4.8) had similar infant mortality rates to New Zealand's in 2007. However, a number of other low-fertility countries had lower infant mortality rates: Sweden (2.2), Finland (2.7), Norway (3.1), France (3.6) and Denmark (4.0).
Regional deaths and life expectancy
During the March 2009 year, there were 7,350 deaths of residents in the Auckland region. Although the Auckland region is home to approximately one-third of New Zealand's population, it only accounted for about one-quarter of New Zealand's deaths. This is due to the region's relatively young age structure. Only 10 percent of the Auckland region's population is aged 65 years and over, compared with 13 percent for the national population.
Statistics NZ's report New Zealand Life Tables 2005–07, released in May 2009, includes the latest information from abridged life tables for regions. The highest life expectancy during 2005–07 was in the Auckland region, for both males (79.4 years) and females (83.2 years). Other regions where life expectancy exceeded the national average were Wellington, Tasman, Nelson (males only), Canterbury, and Otago. Gisborne region had the lowest life expectancy for both males (73.8 years) and females (78.1 years).
All regions experienced increases in life expectancy between 1995–97 and 2005–07. The regions with the highest life expectancy gains were West Coast (up 4.6 years for males and 3.3 years for females), Auckland and Wellington (each up 4.2 years for males and 3.0 years for females).
The reasons for subnational differences in longevity and mortality are difficult to identify precisely and are probably due to a combination of interrelated factors, including the proportion of the population who are Māori, the proportion of the population who smoke (or have smoked), the proximity to health and hospital services, the degree of urbanisation, and socio-economic factors.
Natural increase of population
Natural increase of population represents the excess of births over deaths. Births outnumbered deaths by 35,010 in the March 2009 year, just above the natural increase of 34,960 in the March 2008 year. Natural increase has climbed from a low of 26,670 in 2002. The rate of natural increase was 8.2 per 1,000 mean estimated resident population in the March 2009 year. The 2006-base national population projections show that natural increase is likely to decline over the next 50 years, with deaths projected to outnumber births from 2055.
All regions in New Zealand had more births than deaths in the March 2009 year. Auckland's natural increase (15,610) made up 45 percent of the national natural increase. Auckland's large share of New Zealand's natural increase is due to the small number of deaths relative to the number of births and the size of its population. The next highest natural increase was in Wellington (4,010), followed by Waikato (3,560) and Canterbury (3,270).
Final figures and revised demographic rates
The vital statistics and infant mortality rates for the March 2009 year quoted above, and contained in the appended tables, are final. Fertility rates and crude death rates for the March 2009 quarter and year are provisional. For further details see the technical notes of this release.
Free online database
Statistics NZ's Infoshare database (www.stats.govt.nz/Infoshare) is a free-of-charge online tool that gives you access to a range of time-series data. A number of tables are available for each of the following subjects, which can be found under 'Population' on the 'Browse' page of Infoshare:
- Vital Statistics - Births
- Vital Statistics - Deaths
- Demography Fertility Measures
- Demography Mortality Measures
For technical information contact:
Anne Howard
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: demography@stats.govt.nz
Next release ...
Births and Deaths: June 2009 quarter will be released on 17 August 2009.