International Travel and Migration: January 2009

Visitor arrivals

Monthly visitor arrivals

Short-term overseas visitor arrivals to New Zealand numbered 244,000 in January 2009, a decrease of 9,500 (4 percent) from January 2008 (253,500). This is the lowest number of visitor arrivals in a January month since 2003 (220,900).

The estimated average number of visitors in New Zealand per day in January 2009 was 200,100, down 1 percent from the average of 201,500 in January 2008. Estimated numbers of visitors in the country are calculated from the date of arrival and intended length of stay of sampled visitor arrivals. The average intended stay of visitors who arrived in January 2009 was 24 days, the same as in January 2008. The median (half stay shorter, and half stay longer than this duration) was 12 days, also unchanged from January 2008.

Annual visitor arrivals

During the January 2009 year, there were 2.449 million visitor arrivals, down 23,400 (1 percent) from the January 2008 year. A holiday was the main travel reason for 1.178 million visitors to New Zealand in the January 2009 year, down 37,600 (3 percent) from the previous year. Another 745,700 arrived to visit friends and relatives (up 32,500 or 5 percent), and 249,700 arrived for business (down 19,100 or 7 percent).

Note:  Provisional international travel statistics, including weekly and four-weekly visitor arrival data, are available on the Statistics NZ website. This data is updated each week with the most recently available information on visitor arrivals from 10 major source countries.

Visitors by source country

In January 2009, there were fewer visitors from the United States (down 5,100 or 20 percent), Korea (down 4,500 or 42 percent), the United Kingdom (down 4,400 or 10 percent) and Japan (down 2,600 or 26 percent) compared with January 2008.

There were more visitors from China (up 3,400 or 32 percent) and Hong Kong (up 1,000 or 68 percent), coinciding with the earlier timing of the Chinese New Year period compared with 2008. There were also more visitor arrivals from Australia (up 1,800 or 2 percent).

In the year ended January 2009, compared with the year ended January 2008, more visitors arrived from Oceania (up 33,300 or 3 percent), and Africa and the Middle East (up 6,300 or 15 percent). Fewer visitors arrived from Europe (down 300 or less than 1 percent), the Americas (down 6,400 or 2 percent) and Asia (down 51,200 or 10 percent).

There were 978,000 visitor arrivals from Australia in the year ended January 2009, up 21,600 (2 percent) from the January 2008 year. More visitors were also recorded from South Africa (up 3,800 or 17 percent), Fiji (up 3,000 or 15 percent), Canada (up 2,900 or 6 percent), Germany (up 2,800 or 5 percent), France (up 2,700 or 15 percent) and Singapore (up 2,300 or 8 percent).

Fewer visitor arrivals were recorded from Korea (down 21,800 or 23 percent), Japan (down 19,600 or 16 percent), the United States (down 12,000 or 5 percent), the United Kingdom (down 8,800 or 3 percent), Taiwan (down 6,900 or 27 percent), and China (down 6,200 or 5 percent) in the January 2009 year.

Note: Detailed visitor data will be available in the January 2009 edition of International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand, which can be ordered on the International visitor arrivals subscription page on the Statistics NZ website.

New Zealand-resident departures

Monthly resident departures

New Zealand residents departed on 105,100 short-term overseas trips in January 2009, down 6,100 (5 percent) from the 111,200 departures in January 2008.

In January 2009, there were fewer trips to Fiji (down 1,700 or 38 percent), New Caledonia (down 1,200 or 84 percent), the United States (down 1,200 or 22 percent) and Singapore (down 1,000 or 77 percent). In contrast, resident departures to Australia were up 3,200 (6 percent).

The estimated average number of New Zealand residents who were temporarily overseas during January 2009 was 125,200 per day, down 4 percent from the average of 130,200 in January 2008. Estimates of the number of residents overseas are calculated from the date of departure and intended length of absence of sampled resident departures. The average intended absence of residents who departed in January 2009 was 22 days, up from 21 days in January 2008. The median was 10 days, down from 11 days in January 2008.

Annual resident departures

Short-term departures of New Zealand residents in the January 2009 year numbered 1.961 million, down 21,400 (1 percent) from the January 2008 year. There were fewer departures to Oceania (down 21,000 or 2 percent) and Europe (down 7,500 or 4 percent). More resident departures were recorded to the Americas (up 3,400 or 3 percent), Asia (up 2,100 or 1 percent), and Africa and the Middle East (up 1,500 or 5 percent).

By country, trips to Australia (952,900), the most popular destination, were down 19,900 (2 percent) from the previous year. There were also fewer trips to France (down 4,000 or 21 percent), the United Kingdom (down 2,300 or 2 percent) and Singapore (down 1,900 or 12 percent). There were more trips to the Philippines (up 2,000 or 26 percent), India (up 1,900 or 7 percent), the Cook Islands (up 1,700 or 3 percent) and Viet Nam (up 1,500 or 18 percent) in the January 2009 year.

A holiday was the main travel reason for 815,200 New Zealand residents who departed in the January 2009 year, down 23,600 (3 percent) from the previous year. Another 633,000 were departing to visit friends and relatives (up 12,700 or 2 percent). Departures for business purposes (278,300) were down 10,400 (4 percent) from the year ended January 2008.

Permanent and long-term migration

Definition

Permanent and long-term (PLT) arrivals include people who arrive in New Zealand intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus New Zealand residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more. Included in the former group are people with New Zealand residency, as well as students and holders of work permits. PLT departures include New Zealand residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus overseas visitors departing New Zealand after a stay of 12 months or more.

Monthly PLT migration

PLT arrivals exceeded departures by 1,200 in January 2009, up on the net PLT inflow of 500 in January 2008. There were 700 more PLT arrivals in January 2009 compared with the previous January, but PLT departures were unchanged.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, PLT arrivals exceeded PLT departures by 700 in January 2009.

In January 2009, there were net inflows of migrants from the United Kingdom (1,300), India, and Fiji (each 400). There was a net outflow of 4,100 PLT migrants to Australia, the same as the outflow in January 2008.

Annual PLT migration

In the year ended January 2009, there were 88,200 PLT arrivals, up 5,700 (7 percent) from the January 2008 year. Over the same period, there were 83,700 PLT departures, up 6,000 (8 percent). As a result, net PLT migration was 4,500 in the January 2009 year, down from 4,800 in the January 2008 year.

The net PLT migration gain of 4,500 in the year ended January 2009 is below the annual average of 11,400 recorded for the December years from 1990–2008. Net PLT migration varied substantially within this 19-year period. The net gain peaked at 30,200 in the April 1996 year and again at 42,500 in the May 2003 year. Net outflows were generally experienced during 1998–2001, with the highest being a net loss of 13,200 people in the February 2001 year.

Annual PLT migration by citizenship

A net inflow of 41,200 non-New Zealand citizens and a net outflow of 36,700 New Zealand citizens were recorded in the year ended January 2009. The majority of the net outflow of New Zealand citizens was to Australia (35,300), followed by the United Arab Emirates (600) and Canada (400).

Compared with the January 2008 year, PLT arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens were up 4,800 and PLT arrivals of New Zealand citizens were up 900. There were 4,400 more PLT departures of New Zealand citizens and 1,600 more PLT departures of non-New Zealand citizens. Changes in non-New Zealand citizen departures are often related to changes in non-New Zealand citizen arrivals a few years earlier. Similarly, changes in New Zealand citizen arrivals are often related to changes in New Zealand citizen departures a few years earlier.

Annual PLT migration by country

In the year ended January 2009, there was a net inflow of 7,900 migrants from the United Kingdom, up from 6,900 in the January 2008 year. The net inflow from India was 5,300, up from 3,700 in the January 2008 year and 2,200 in the January 2007 year. There were also net PLT inflows from the Philippines (3,700), Fiji (3,000), South Africa (2,800), and China (2,700).

The net PLT outflow to Australia was 35,400 in the January 2009 year, up from 28,600 in the January 2008 year, but unchanged from the December 2008 year net outflow. This net outflow was the highest recorded, and exceeds previous peaks in the January 1989 year (33,700) and the December 1979 year (33,400). The latest net outflow resulted from 48,500 PLT departures to Australia, partly offset by 13,100 PLT arrivals from Australia. Almost two-thirds of the PLT arrivals from Australia were New Zealand citizens (8,300).

The net outflow to Australia was spread across both age and occupation groups. Migrants aged 15–29 years accounted for 41 percent (14,400) of the net outflow to Australia in the January 2009 year, while the 0–14-year age group (8,100) and the 30–44-year age group (8,000) each contributed 23 percent of the outflow. The 45–59-year age group (4,400) contributed a further 12 percent, and the remaining 1 percent (500) were aged 60 years and over.

Net outflows to Australia were recorded in each broad occupation group, led by trades workers (2,400), professionals, and service and sales workers (each 2,300). There was also a net outflow to Australia of 14,700 people without an occupation, of which most were children or students.

PLT migration by permit type

Statistics NZ is now releasing the permit type for people arriving into New Zealand as part of its International Travel and Migration dataset. Permit type is available from July 2003 for short-term overseas visitor arrivals and PLT migrants. Permit type will not be available for arrivals of short-term New Zealand-resident travellers.

Background information about permit types, and analysis of June year data from 2004 to 2008, is available in Arrivals by permit type, available on the International travel and migration articles page of the Statistics NZ website (click on Other).

In the January 2009 year, 28,100 PLT arrivals were Australian or New Zealand citizens who did not require a permit to remain in New Zealand. Of PLT arrivals who did require a permit, 24,100 arrived on work permits, 15,500 arrived on student permits, 14,600 arrived on residence permits, and 5,400 arrived on visitor permits. Compared with the January 2008 year, there were more PLT arrivals on student permits (up 3,000) and work permits (up 2,900), but fewer arrivals on residence permits (down 900). The majority of residence approvals in recent years have been granted onshore, to people who arrived on other permit types.

Recent international travel and migration articles

Statistics NZ has recently released three articles on international travel and migration topics. These can be accessed on the International travel and migration articles page of the Statistics NZ website.

• Non-response for international travel and migration variables examines non-response rates for variables captured from arrival and departure cards.
• Short-term New Zealand traveller departures to Pacific island countries examines departures over the last decade to Fiji, the Cook Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island and French Polynesia.
• Arrivals by permit type introduces the newly available permit type data. It includes background notes about permit types, as well as data analysis.

Infoshare and INFOS databases

Statistics NZ recently released a free-of-charge online database, Infoshare (www.stats.govt.nz/infoshare.) that gives access to a range of time-series data. Infoshare contains many international travel and migration data series, currently available through:

• International travel and migration (under Tourism on the Browse page)
• External migration (under Population on the Browse page).

The international travel and migration subject is under development, with more detailed cross-tabulations being progressively added. This will eventually replace the external migration subject, but both will remain available until development of the international travel and migration subject is complete. Both subjects remain available in the INFOS database (for subscribers only). Detailed visitor arrival, resident departure, and permanent and long-term migration families have now been released.

Upcoming changes to seasonally adjusted series

Statistics NZ will soon introduce an improved seasonal adjustment process for international travel and migration data. Adjustments will be included for the effect of the number and type of trading days in the month (as more people generally arrive and depart on Friday, Saturday and Sunday), and for holiday periods which have important effects on travel but in different months each year (eg Easter can be in March or April). The addition of these adjustments will result in less volatile seasonally adjusted series, which will allow associated trend series to also be published.

All seasonally adjusted data in this release are based on the existing seasonal adjustment process, without the adjustments detailed below. The next International Travel and Migration Hot Off The Press release (on 20 March 2009) will contain seasonally adjusted series using the new process, as well as the newly-available trend series. The new process continues to use Statistics NZ's standard seasonal adjustment package X-12-ARIMA, but incorporates enhancements which allow the specification and adjustment of additional calendar effects.

Seasonally adjusted data available in the Infoshare and INFOS databases available in association with this release will initially be from the existing seasonal adjustment process. However, during the week ending Friday 13 March, this will be replaced with data from the improved process. Users who wish to compare series from the existing and new seasonal adjustment process will be able to extract the current data series before the week ending 13 March, then extract the new data series once released. Note that INFOS series identifiers will not change – only the data contained within each series will change. Trend series will also be made available during the same week. When actioned, the changes will be noted on the Infoshare changes webpage.

In addition to the monthly seasonally adjusted series, Statistics NZ also plans to introduce quarterly seasonally adjusted series from the release of March 2009 data.

The adjustments for each monthly seasonal adjustment series, in addition to the standard seasonal adjustment process, will be as follows:

• permanent and long-term arrivals: no additional adjustments
• permanent and long-term departures: no additional adjustments
• visitor arrivals: Chinese New Year, Easter, April/May school holidays, June/July school holidays, daily trading day
• visitor departures: Chinese New Year, Easter, September/October school holidays
• New Zealand-resident traveller arrivals: Easter, April/May school holidays, September/October school holidays, weekday/weekend trading day
• New Zealand-resident traveller departures: Chinese New Year, Easter, April/May school holidays, June/July school holidays, September/October school holidays, weekday/weekend trading day
• all composite series (total arrivals, total departures, total passenger movements, net permanent and long-term migration) are a combination of the series above. 

Another change will see the seasonal adjustment based on data from January 1996 onwards. Seasonally adjusted data before this point will remain available, but will not be revised and will be independent of the seasonal adjustment from 1996 onwards. Restricting the input data will cause some additional changes to the seasonally adjusted data, including the permanent and long-term series which otherwise have not been modified. These effects are most noticeable within a few years of the January 1996 cut-off.

Further information about the seasonal adjustment changes can be obtained from the contacts below.

For technical information contact:
Nick Thomson or Ian Richards
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: demography@stats.govt.nz.

Next release ...

International Travel and Migration: February 2009 will be released on 20 March 2009.