Overseas Trade Indexes (Volumes): March 2009 quarter (provisional)

Merchandise export volumes

Seasonally adjusted export volumes rose 2.0 percent in the March 2009 quarter following a 0.5 percent fall in the December 2008 quarter. This is the first rise in export volumes since the December 2007 quarter. Dairy products volumes were the major contributor to the rise in volumes in the March 2009 quarter. Partly offsetting the overall rise were falls in the volumes of machinery and transport equipment, petroleum and petroleum products, and aluminium.

 

Dairy products volumes, which rose 14.0 percent in the March 2009 quarter, contributed the most to the overall rise in export volumes. This is the second consecutive quarterly rise for dairy products, following a 5.7 percent rise in the December 2008 quarter. The leading contributors to this rise were rises in the volumes of skimmed and buttermilk powder (up 51.2 percent), and butter (up 43.6 percent). Partly offsetting these rises was a fall in the volume of whole milk powder (down 5.5 percent).

Other smaller upward contributions to the rise in export volumes in the March 2009 quarter were made by meat, wool and by-products (up 1.9 percent), iron and steel (up 14.3 percent) and fresh apples (up 22.4 percent). The main contributors to the rise in the volumes of meat, wool and by-products were lamb, hogget and mutton (up 1.9 percent) and raw hides, skins and fur skins (up 19.3 percent), while the beef and veal volumes fell 4.7 percent.

Machinery and transport equipment volumes (down 21.8 percent) was the largest offsetting fall with several commodities declining, including sail and motor pleasure boats. This fall was closely followed by petroleum and petroleum products (down 23.1 percent), mainly as a result of a fall in the volume of crude oil exports. Aluminium volumes were also a significant offsetting decrease, down 29.7 percent.

Merchandise import volumes

Seasonally adjusted import volumes fell 9.8 percent in the March 2009 quarter, and are at their lowest level since the December 2004 quarter. This is the third consecutive fall for total imports, which is now 18.8 percent lower than its level at the June 2008 quarter. All the broad economic category import volumes series fell in the March 2009 quarter, with the exception of the processed fuels and lubricants sub-index and the motor spirit index. Capital goods and intermediate goods were the main contributors to the overall fall in import volumes in the March 2009 quarter. The passenger motor cars and consumption goods indexes also recorded falls, while the motor spirit index rose this quarter. When fuels imports are excluded, import volumes fell 12.3 percent.

Capital goods volumes, which fell 30.1 percent in the March 2009 quarter, contributed the most to the overall fall in import volumes. This index is at its lowest level since the March 2005 quarter, and has fallen for three consecutive quarters. The capital machinery and plant sub-index (down 10.6 percent) and the capital transport sub-index (down 42.8 percent) both fell this quarter. For the capital machinery and plant sub-index, mobile phones were the main contributor to the fall. The fall in the capital transport sub-index was due to the one-off import of container ships in the December 2008 quarter, and a decrease in the volumes of light diesel trucks.

Intermediate goods volumes fell 10.1 percent in the March 2009 quarter, the largest fall since the series began. The processed industrial supplies (down 18.7 percent) and primary fuels and lubricants (down 27.3 percent) sub-indexes were the main contributors to the fall in total intermediate goods. Urea contributed the most to the fall in the processed industrial supplies sub-index, while crude oil was the largest contributor to the fall in the primary fuels and lubricants sub-index. The other sub-indexes within the intermediate goods category fell in the March 2009 quarter, with the exception of the processed fuels and lubricants sub-index.

Passenger motor car volumes fell 47.4 percent in the March 2009 quarter, following a fall of 27.5 percent in the December 2008 quarter. This index is at its lowest level since the March 1998 quarter. New petrol cars with cylinder capacities ranging from 1500–3000cc were the main contributors to the fall in the latest quarter.

Consumption goods volumes fell 6.3 percent in the March 2009 quarter. This is the third consecutive fall for this index which is now 12.5 percent lower than the June 2008 quarter. All sub-indexes within the consumption goods category fell in the March 2009 quarter, with the non-durable sub-index (down 7.4 percent) leading the falls.

The motor spirit index rose 48.5 percent in the March 2009 quarter, following a rise of 5.4 percent in the December 2008 quarter. The movements in this index are often influenced by large irregular imports.

Updates to previously published data

The overseas trade indexes are provisional for one quarter to allow for the receipt and editing of late and amended trade documentation. The following table shows updates to unadjusted indexes and values.

The import and export merchandise series in this release are calculated from the same data as used in the Overseas Merchandise Trade: April 2009 monthly release published on 26 May 2009. Updates published after this date will be included in subsequent overseas trade index (volumes) releases.

Revisions to previously published data

A number of revisions have been made to the overseas trade index value and volume series for imports for the September and December 2008 quarters. These changes mainly affect series for the broad economic category (BEC) groups published for imports – the total imports indexes remain unchanged. These revisions were required to more fully reflect changes in the New Zealand Harmonised System (HS) classification as a result of substantial changes made to the HS by the World Customs Organisation in January 2007. A review of these changes and BEC highlighted a number of improvements which could be made to the way these new codes were allocated to the BEC categories. The overseas trade indexes are normally rebased for any HS changes in the September quarter of each year with the 2007 HS changes being introduced in the September quarter 2008 rebase – when a full year's trade data is available. The review noted above has resulted in revisions to the BEC value and volume series for the September and December 2008 quarters. No price index series have been revised. These changes will flow through to the National Accounts for these periods but the impact on quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) is not significant.

Some of the revisions to key BEC series are detailed in the table below and the full list of revisions is included in the attached supplementary tables.

For technical information contact:
Soni Makaafi or Henry Minish
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz

Next releases...

Overseas Trade Indexes (Prices): June 2009 quarter (provisional)
and
Overseas Trade Indexes (Volumes): June 2009 quarter (provisional)
will both be released on 10 September 2009.