Overseas Merchandise Trade: June 2009

Seasonally adjusted exports – June 2009 quarter

The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise exports for the June 2009 quarter ($10.2 billion) fell 5.4 percent compared with the March 2009 quarter ($10.7 billion). This is the second consecutive quarterly decrease, and follows a decrease of 5.0 percent in the March 2009 quarter. This quarter’s fall brings the value of total merchandise exports to its lowest level since the September 2007 quarter. Following the September quarter, there were various factors contributing to increased exports, including the first full quarter's production of crude oil at the Tui oil field, and increased prices in the dairy, and petroleum and products sectors.

The trend for total merchandise exports has fallen for the two most recent quarters, down a total of 9.0 percent since the December 2008 quarter. Prior to this, the trend had been rising since March 2007 at an average rate of 3.8 percent per quarter.

Seven of the top 10 commodity groupings in table 12 recorded decreases this quarter. Casein and caseinates recorded the largest decrease, down 21.9 percent ($64 million), despite a 6.3 percent rise in the quantity exported. Milk powder, butter and cheese also recorded a decrease, down 1.9 percent ($40 million), despite a large (22.1 percent) increase in quantities. Meat and edible offal also recorded a decrease this quarter, down 4.2 percent ($59 million), also led by price decreases.

Crude oil was the commodity with the largest rise in the June 2009 quarter, rising 63.6 percent ($162 million), driven by a 69.0 percent increase in quantities. This rise in crude oil exports coincides with the commencement of oil exported from the Maari oil field in April, and follows consecutive declines over three quarters, including decreases of more than 40 percent for the previous two quarters. Logs, wood, and wood articles recorded the second largest increase, up 13.5 percent ($74 million), driven by a 21.5 percent increase in quantities.

Seasonally adjusted imports – June 2009 quarter

The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise imports decreased 3.4 percent to $10.4 billion in the June 2009 quarter following a 13.7 percent decrease in the March 2009 quarter. The June 2009 quarter included the one-off importation of several large aircraft valued at $571 million, associated with Jetstar commencing domestic air services in New Zealand. Without this one-off import there would have been a 8.7 percent decrease in the seasonally adjusted value of imports for the June 2009 quarter.

Of the broad economic groups, intermediate goods showed the largest decline, followed by consumption goods. These decreases were partly offset by increases in capital goods, passenger cars, and petrol and avgas.

Intermediate goods fell 12.6 percent ($634 million) this quarter. Intermediate goods other than crude oil declined 16.6 percent ($743 million) following a 12.8 percent fall in the March 2009 quarter. There were falls across all the major categories of intermediate goods other than crude oil. Major contributions to the fall came from: processed industrial supplies, down 9.9 percent ($228 million), including a notable fall in fertiliser; processed fuels and lubricants, other than motor spirit, were down 37.8 percent ($207 million); and parts and accessories of capital goods were down 15.5 percent or $191 million. Crude oil, which is not seasonally adjusted, rose 18.5 percent or $104 million. Crude oil is imported in large, irregular shipments which can give rise to large percentage fluctuations.

Consumption goods declined 2.7 percent ($78 million) in the June 2009 quarter, following a 1.1 percent rise in the March 2009 quarter. The main contributors to this decline were semi and non durable consumer goods, and transport equipment (this category includes motorcycles, boats and aircraft).

Capital goods imports rose 13.3 percent ($267 million) in the June 2009 quarter mainly because of a 216 percent ($529 million) rise in transport equipment as a result of the one-off imports of aircraft mentioned above. Machinery and plant declined 14.8 percent ($262 million), following a decline of 2.4 percent in the March 2009 quarter.

Passenger cars rose 15.5 percent ($57 million), the first rise since the September 2008 quarter. This increase is from a low level, with the March 2009 quarter value being the lowest since the June 1998 quarter.

Seasonally adjusted trade balance – June 2009 quarter

The seasonally adjusted trade balance for the June 2009 quarter was a deficit of $217 million (2.1 percent of exports), following a nearly nil deficit ($1 million) in the March 2009 quarter. Prior to the March 2009 quarter, trade deficits of less than 5 percent of exports had not been seen since the first half of 2002. If it had not been for the one-off imports of aircraft during the June month, the June 2009 quarter would have had a seasonally adjusted surplus of $354 million (3.5 percent of exports). The most recent quarterly seasonally adjusted trade surplus was in the December 2001 quarter.

June 2009 month – actual values

In the month of June 2009, merchandise exports were valued at $3.2 billion, down $395 million (11.0 percent) from June 2008. When comparing to the same month of the previous year, this is the largest decrease for exports since July 2007. Exports in June 2008 were lifted by various factors, including high production from the Tui oilfield, high international oil prices and higher dairy prices.

The export trend has decreased 4.5 percent since October 2008, with an average decline of 0.6 percent per month.

In the month of June 2009, key decreases and increases in exports by commodity and by country of destination were as follows:

• Crude oil was down $193 million (60.1 percent) for the month, due to decreases in both quantity and value.
• Milk powder, butter and cheese decreased $69 million (11.1 percent), largely the result of decreased prices.
• The largest increase for the month was in precious metals, jewellery and coins, which increased $19 million (43.1 percent). This was the result of a $33 million increase in unwrought gold, partly offset by a $18 million decrease in semi-manufactured gold.
• Exports to Australia had the largest decrease in June 2009, down $243 million (25.5 percent), led by crude oil, down $215 million (66.9 percent), associated with decreased prices and quantities.
• The largest exports increase was to the People's Republic of China, up $101 million (49.1 percent). This increase was through a variety of items, including a 185 percent increase in wood and wood articles, up $48 million, as well as a quantity driven increase in whole milk powder (up $20 million or 355 percent).

In the month of June 2009, merchandise imports were valued at $3.6 billion, down $192 million (5.1 percent) from June 2008. As mentioned previously, the June month includes the one-off import of several large aircraft valued at $571 million. Excluding this one-off, merchandise imports would have been $3.0 billion, a decrease of 20.0 percent on June 2008.

The trend for merchandise imports has been decreasing since August 2008, and is down 20.2 percent since then.

Key decreases and increases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:

• Petroleum and products recorded the largest decrease, down $478 million (59.2 percent). Crude oil was a significant contributor to this decrease with lower prices and quantities. As previously discussed, crude oil is imported in large, irregular shipments.
• Vehicles, parts and accessories was the next largest decrease, down $183 million (43.6 percent), as imports of passenger motor cars fell by $96 million (39.1 percent) and goods transport vehicles fell by $67 million (69.6 percent).
• Salt, earths, stone, lime and cement decreased $65 million (91.3 percent) – natural calcium phosphates and sulphur contributed most of this decrease, although imports of both of these commodities tend to be irregular with none imported in June 2009.
• The largest offsetting increase was from aircraft and parts, up $544 million (620 percent) – mainly the result of the one-off import of several large aircraft associated with Jetstar commencing domestic air services in New Zealand.
• Electrical machinery and equipment was the next largest increase, up $84 million (26.3 percent), mainly as a result of an increase in electricity generators of $86 million, the imports of which are also irregular.
• The largest decrease in imports by country of origin came from Australia, down $196 million (25.2 percent), led by decreases in the imports of crude and partly refined crude. Singapore was down $190 million (78.0 percent) mainly as a result of a decrease in refined petroleum products.
• The largest increase in imports by country of origin came from France, up $555 million (979 percent), and is mainly a result of the one-off import of several large aircraft already mentioned. The next largest increase was from the Republic of Korea, up $54 million (74.6 percent), led by the import of stainless steel steam pipes, with none being imported in the previous June month.

Trade balance – June 2009 actual values

The trade balance for the June 2009 month was a deficit of $417 million (13.1 percent of exports). With the one-off imports of large aircraft removed there would have been a surplus of $154 million (4.8 percent of exports). Over the last 10 years there have only been two June surpluses, in 2001 and 2002. The average trade balance for June months over that period has been a deficit of $202 million (or 7.2 percent of exports).

The trade balance for the June 2009 year was a deficit of $3.2 billion (7.4 percent of exports) compared with an average deficit of 10.5 percent of exports over the last 10 June years.---PDF BREAK---

Year ended June 2009 – actual values

The value of merchandise exports for the year ended June 2009 was $43.0 billion, up 7.5 percent from the $40.0 billion recorded in the year ended June 2008. The majority of this increase was recorded during the first few months of this period, in line with the monthly trend. Key increases and decreases by commodity and country of destination were:

• Meat and edible offal recorded the largest increase, up $845 million (18.1 percent), despite a decrease in quantities exported.
• Logs, wood and wood articles exports rose $351 million (17.5 percent) – the next largest increase – due to price and quantity increases for pine logs.
• Crude oil recorded the largest decrease, down $578 million (22.7 percent) as both prices and quantities fell.
• China had the largest increase of any country, up $1.3 billion (61.6 percent), led by milk powder, butter and cheese, and logs, wood and wood articles. China is now ahead of Japan as the third largest country of destination for exports, behind Australia and the United States of America.
• The next largest increase by country was to the United States of America, up $755 million (18.8 percent), led by milk powder, butter and cheese, and meat and edible offal.

The value of merchandise imports in the year ended June 2009 was $46.2 billion, up 3.8 percent on the previous June year. Key increases and decreases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:

• Aircraft and parts had the largest increase, up $593 million (75.2 percent), mainly due to the large one-off import in June 2009.
• Electrical machinery and equipment was the next largest increase, up $550 million (14.6 percent), led by electricity generators, up $248 million, and mobile phones, up $84 million.
• Fertilisers were up $322 million (63.7 percent), mainly due to higher prices for potassium chloride and urea.
• The largest offsetting decrease was from vehicles, parts and accessories, down $1.4 billion or 25.7 percent. This decrease was led by a $1.0 billion decrease in passenger cars. Petrol cars with a 1500-3000cc rating decreased $473 million and those with a cc rating exceeding 3000 decreased $404 million. In addition, imports of goods vehicles decreased $410 million, while tractors increased by $82 million.
• The largest increase by country of origin was for China, up $836 million (14.4 percent). Electrical machinery and equipment, up $203 million (including items such as mobile phones), and salt, earths, stone, lime and cement, up $71 million (mainly natural calcium phosphates), showed the two largest increases.
• The next largest increase by country of origin was France, up $690 million (98.3 percent), mainly as a result of the one-off import of aircraft in June 2009.
• Australia recorded the largest annual decrease, down $569 million (6.6 percent), mainly due to falls in petroleum products and passenger motor cars. The next largest decrease was for Malaysia, down $491 million (26.6 percent).

Exchange rate movements

According to the Reserve Bank's Trade Weighted Index (TWI), the New Zealand dollar was 4.1 percent higher in June 2009 compared with May 2009, and 11.4 percent lower compared with June 2008.

The TWI rose 8.7 percent in the June 2009 quarter, compared with the March 2009 quarter, the first rise following four quarters of falls. The TWI is 15.7 percent lower in the June 2009 quarter than it was in the same period of the previous year.

Updates to previous statistics

Provisional values published on 29 June 2009 have been updated. Merchandise trade statistics for the latest three months are provisional to allow for the inclusion of late data and amendments.

For technical information contact:
Henry Minish or Scott Davis
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz 

Next release...

Overseas Merchandise Trade: July 2009 will be released on 27 August 2009.