All references to sales movements are to seasonally adjusted series unless otherwise stated.
September 2009 quarter sales value summary
In the September 2009 quarter the value of total retail sales rose 0.5 percent ($82 million), following a 1.1 percent increase in the June 2009 quarter. This was preceded by four quarters of decreases.
The value of core retail sales (which excludes the four vehicle-related industries) rose 0.6 percent ($69 million) in the September 2009 quarter.
In the September 2009 quarter, 14 of the 24 retail industries recorded increased sales. The biggest increases were for supermarket and grocery stores (up 1.1 percent or $41 million), appliance retailing (up 5.1 percent or $32 million), motor vehicle retailing (up 1.9 percent or $31 million), and clothing and softgoods retailing (up 4.5 percent or $29 million).
The biggest decreases were in automotive fuel retailing (down 2.5 percent or $38 million), department stores (down 3.2 percent or $30 million), and cafes and restaurants (down 2.6 percent or $26 million).
September 2009 quarter sales volume summary
All references to dollar values in this section are at September 1995 quarter prices.
After an increase last quarter, the volume of total retail sales was flat, up just 0.1 percent in the September 2009 quarter. This followed a five-quarter period of decreases, that culminated in a record fall of 2.8 percent in the March 2009 quarter.
Core retail sales went up 0.5 percent, following a 0.3 percent increase in the June 2009 quarter.
Ten of the 20 core retail industries recorded increases in sales volumes. As illustrated in the following graph, by far the biggest contributor to the volume increase this quarter was appliance retailing (up 6.5 percent). This was followed by clothing and softgoods retailing (up 3.8 percent) and accommodation (up 3.1 percent).
The increases in sales volumes were offset partly by decreases in motor vehicle retailing (down 2.0 percent), department stores (down 3.1 percent), and other retailing (down 4.4 percent).
---PDF BREAK---September 2009 quarter trends
The trends in both total and core retail sales values rose again in the September 2009 quarter. The total retail sales trend has risen 1.1 percent since March 2009, after a period of decline between the June 2008 quarter and the March 2009 quarter, when it fell 2.3 percent. In core retailing, the trend in the sales value has been rising since the start of the series in September 1995.
Falling sales in motor vehicle retailing were the major driver of the decline in the total sales value trend. The trend in motor vehicle retailing has been declining since June 2007 but latest data indicates the fall has stopped.
The trend in the volume of total retail sales fell 6.6 percent between September 2007 and June 2009, but appears to have stopped falling as the September 2009 quarter shows a slight lift (0.2 percent). The trend in the core retail volume has risen 0.7 percent since March 2009, after falling 1.9 percent between September 2007 and March 2009. These recent falls, in the total and the core retail trends, have been the longest periods of decline since the beginning of the series in September 1995.
---PDF BREAK---Actual sales September 2009 quarter
In the September 2009 quarter compared with the September 2008 quarter:
- the value of actual retail sales was $15.8 billion, down 1.0 percent
- the volume of actual retail sales, expressed in September 1995 quarter prices, was $13.2 billion, down 2.9 percent.
Supermarket and grocery stores
Supermarket and grocery stores had the largest increase in value in the September 2009 quarter, with sales up 1.1 percent ($41 million). The increase was primarily the result of a rise in prices, with volumes up just 0.2 percent from the June 2009 quarter.
The trend in sales values has been rising since the series began in September 1995, at an average of 1.5 percent per quarter. The rate of increase had slowed in mid-2008, but has since picked up.
The trend in the volume of sales has been rising since September 2008, up 2.9 percent since then, after falling between March 2008 and September 2008. The September 2009 quarter's increase brings the volume level back to the March 2008 quarter level.
Appliance retailing
The value of appliance retailing sales rose 5.1 percent ($32 million) in the September 2009 quarter, making this industry the second-largest contributor to the increase in total sales this quarter. This industry also had by far the largest increase in the volume of sales (up 6.5 percent), which drove the increase in sales values.
The trends for both the value and volume of sales are showing strength, with increases of 7.4 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively, since they began rising in the March 2009 quarter.
Clothing and softgoods retailing
The value of clothing and softgoods retailing sales was up 4.5 percent ($29 million) in the September 2009 quarter. The sales volume was also up – 3.8 percent, the second-largest increase in volumes this quarter.
These increases coincided with below-average temperatures in July, and the warmest August on record.
Sales trends in values and volumes are both increasing. The values trend has been rising since the March 2009 quarter and is up 6.8 percent since then; the volumes trend has also risen over the same period, up 5.1 percent. Both values and volumes trends are at their highest level since the beginning of the series in September 1995, exceeding their previous peaks in the June 2007 quarter.
---PDF BREAK---Department stores
Department stores had the largest decrease in sales values in the core industries, down 3.2 percent ($30 million) in the September 2009 quarter, and the second-largest decrease in all industries. The drop in sales values was mostly due to a decrease in volumes, which were down 3.1 percent, the second-largest decrease in volumes in all industries.
The trend in the value of department store sales has been going down since reaching a turning point in the September 2008 quarter; down an average of 1.3 percent per quarter. The trend is now 5.1 percent lower than in September 2008. Over the same period, the volumes trend has also been decreasing – down 6.7 percent. The trend in the volume of sales is at its lowest level since the December 2006 quarter.
Motor vehicle retailing
The value of motor vehicle retailing sales rose 1.9 percent ($31 million) in the September 2009 quarter. This is the second consecutive increase, following six quarters of decreases. The increase in value was despite this industry having the largest decrease in volumes – down 2.0 percent.
The trend in the sales value fell 24.8 percent in the eight quarters from September 2007 to June 2009, but appears to have reached a turning point in June 2009, and is showing 1.4 percent growth in the September 2009 quarter. Initial trend estimates should be used with caution.
The trend in the sales volume has been falling since the June 2007 quarter – down 29.3 percent since then. This is the most sustained period of decline since the series began in September 1995. The volumes trend also fell between the June 1996 and March 1998 quarters, but the rate of decline was slower and the total fall was just 11.9 percent.
New Zealand Transport Agency figures, which are not seasonally adjusted, show 32,436 new registrations of cars and station wagons (including cars previously registered overseas) in the September 2009 quarter. This is a 19.3 percent increase when compared with the June 2009 quarter.
Stocks
All references to stocks are in actual dollars.
The actual value of stocks held at the end of the September 2009 quarter was 4.6 percent ($253 million) lower than at the end of the September 2008 quarter. This is the third consecutive quarter to show a decrease in the value of stocks held, compared with the same period last year.
Compared with a year earlier, 14 of the retail industries showed decreases in stock values. The biggest decreases were:
- Motor vehicle retailing, down 19.7 percent ($208 million)
- Department stores, down 13.4 percent ($97 million)
- Other retailing, down 6.9 percent ($37 million)
- Furniture and floor coverings, down 14.6 percent ($30 million).
The other 10 industries had decreases of less than $15 million.
Of the 10 industries that held increased stock values, the biggest increases were:
- Clothing and softgoods retailing, up 13.7 percent ($56 million)
- Appliance retailing, up 15.3 percent ($53 million)
- Supermarket and grocery stores, up 9.0 percent ($46 million).
Regional estimates
In the September 2009 quarter, the value of seasonally adjusted retail sales in both the North Island and the South Island increased, although results for individual regions were mixed. Changes in regional sales were as follows:
- Auckland, up 2.2 percent ($114 million)
- Waikato, no change, sales fell less than 0.1 percent
- Wellington, down 2.5 percent ($44 million)
- Remainder of the North Island, no change, sales rose less than 0.1 percent
- Canterbury, down 0.5 percent ($12 million)
- Remainder of the South Island, up 0.8 percent ($17 million).
Note that seasonal adjustment is run separately for each region and each industry, allowing the identification of individual variations in seasonal patterns. The total retail sales figure is calculated by adding industry data and therefore may not be the same as the sum of regional data.
Illustrated in the graph below, regional sales trends are as follows:
- Auckland – latest data confirms that the trend reached a turning point in March 2009 and has begun rising (up 3.9 percent since March). The trend fell 4.2 percent in the five quarters March 2008 to March 2009.
- Waikato – as with Auckland, latest data confirms the trend reached a turning point in March 2009 and has begun rising (up 2.5 percent since March). The trend fell 2.7 percent between December 2008 and March 2009.
- Wellington – the trend has been falling since June 2008 (down 6.9 percent since then).
- Remainder of the North Island – the trend fell 4.4 percent in the five quarters from June 2008 to June 2009, but latest figures suggest the trend may have reached a turning point in June 2009 and that the decline has stopped. Initial trend estimates should be used with caution as they may be revised as more data points become available.
- Canterbury – the trend has been falling since December 2008 (down 2.5 percent since then).
- Remainder of the South Island – latest data confirms the trend reached a turning point in March 2009 and has begun rising (up 2.5 percent since March 2009). The trend fell 2.5 percent between June 2008 and March 2009.
Contributions to total actual retail sales in the September 2009 quarter were:
- Auckland, 32.9 percent
- Waikato, 9.1 percent
- Wellington, 10.6 percent
- Remainder of the North Island, 22.3 percent
- Canterbury, 12.8 percent
- Remainder of the South Island, 12.2 percent.
---PDF BREAK---September 2009 month
In the September 2009 month, compared with August 2009, seasonally adjusted sales in core retail were flat, down by less than 0.1 percent. Total retail sales rose 0.2 percent ($10 million), due to a 0.9 percent ($12 million) increase in the vehicle-related industries.
Thirteen of the 20 core retail industries had sales movements, up or down, of less than $3 million. Bigger increases were in supermarket and grocery stores, up 1.1 percent ($15 million), clothing and softgoods retailing, up 3.8 percent ($9 million), and appliance retailing, up 3.6 percent ($8 million).
Decreases bigger than $3 million were in hardware retailing, down 7.7 percent ($10 million), fresh produce, down 6.9 percent ($6 million), cafes and restaurants, down 1.5 percent ($5 million), and other retailing, down 2.0 percent ($5 million).
In the vehicle-related industries, motor vehicle retailing sales rose 2.0 percent ($11 million) and automotive fuel retailing sales rose 1.6 percent ($8 million). Automotive repair and services not elsewhere classified (nec) sales fell 2.7 percent ($5 million) and there was also a small fall in automotive electrical services, smash repairing, and tyre retailing.
The monthly trend in total retail sales has been rising since February 2009 and is up 1.7 percent since then. This follows a period of decline between February 2008 and February 2009, when the trend fell 3.3 percent.
The core retail sales trend has been rising since September 1995 at an average of 0.4 percent per month. Since April 2007 the rate of increase has been slow, averaging 0.2 percent per month.
The total actual sales value for September 2009 was $5.3 billion, 0.5 percent lower than in September 2008.
Seasonally adjusted total retail sales increased in Auckland, Waikato, and Wellington regions in the September 2009 month, and decreased in the remainder of the North Island, Canterbury, and the remainder of the South Island.
Regional sales trends are as follows:
- Auckland – the sales trend is strong, rising 5.0 percent since February 2009.
- Waikato – since February 2009 the trend has risen 1.3 percent.
- Wellington – the sales trend has declined 8.0 percent since March 2008.
- Remainder of the North Island – the trend is flat, rising just 0.3 percent since April 2009.
- Canterbury – since January 2009, the sales trend has declined 4.0 percent.
- Remainder of the South Island – since January 2009 the trend has risen 3.1 percent.
Revisions
There were no revisions in the September 2009 quarter.
Comparison statistics
For the September 2009 quarter compared with the June 2009 quarter:
- The consumers price index rose 1.3 percent.
- New Zealand Transport Agency figures, which are not seasonally adjusted, showed new registrations of cars and station wagons (including cars previously registered overseas) were up 19.3 percent.
Long-term comparisons:
- Credit card billings in New Zealand, including spending using New Zealand and overseas issued cards, fell 4.2 percent in the month of September 2009 and fell 2.0 percent in the September 2009 quarter (each compared with the same period of the previous year).
Other:
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate remained at 2.50 percent throughout the September quarter.
Measurement errors
All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors. These include both sample errors and non-sample errors. In addition, the survey applies imputation methodologies to cope with small firms and non-response. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the results from the survey. For more information on measurement errors, please refer to the technical notes of this release.
Sample errors
The postal survey was designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):
- 2 percent for sales at the total national retail trade level
- 10 percent for sales at the published national retail industry level.
This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total retail trade sales lies within 2 percent of the published estimate.
Retail Trade Survey: September 2009 Month Sample Errors by Industry
At the 95 percent confidence interval limit |
| Retail industry |
Level
(relative percent) |
Movement
(absolute percent) |
| Supermarket and grocery stores |
5.4 |
2.9 |
| Fresh meat, fish, poultry, fruit and vegetables |
9.0 |
7.4 |
| Liquor retailing |
9.0 |
1.0 |
| Other food retailing |
10.3 |
6.8 |
| Takeaway food retailing |
6.2 |
2.3 |
| Department stores |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Furniture and floor coverings |
8.4 |
4.6 |
| Hardware |
5.5 |
2.9 |
| Appliance retailing |
13.4 |
4.7 |
| Recreational goods |
8.8 |
8.4 |
| Clothing and softgoods |
5.9 |
3.6 |
| Footwear |
11.9 |
0.9 |
| Chemist |
5.5 |
1.8 |
| Household equipment repair services |
11.0 |
4.8 |
---PDF BREAK---
Retail Trade Survey: September 2009 Month Sample Errors by Industry
At the 95 percent confidence interval limit |
| Retail industry |
Level
(relative percent) |
Movement
(absolute percent) |
| Other retailing |
8.0 |
5.5 |
| Motor vehicle retailing |
8.8 |
4.8 |
| Automotive fuel retailing |
3.4 |
1.2 |
| Automotive electrical services, smash repairing, tyre retailing |
5.6 |
4.2 |
| Automotive repair and services, nec |
7.4 |
3.4 |
| Accommodation |
5.2 |
3.4 |
| Bars and clubs |
8.7 |
4.1 |
| Cafes and restaurants |
5.6 |
2.2 |
| Personal and household goods hiring |
16.9 |
12.2 |
| Other personal services |
6.3 |
2.1 |
| Total retail trade |
1.9 |
1.6 |
Note: nec = not elsewhere classified |
Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries, all large firms are surveyed and all small to medium-sized firms are modelled using administrative data sourced from Inland Revenue.
Retail Trade Survey: September 2009 Month Sample Errors by Region
At the 95 percent confidence interval limit |
| Region |
Level
(relative percent) |
Movement
(absolute percent) |
| Auckland |
4.7 |
2.6 |
| Waikato |
10.0 |
1.9 |
| Wellington |
5.5 |
1.1 |
| Remainder of the North Island |
6.4 |
1.1 |
| Canterbury |
7.1 |
0.6 |
| Remainder of the South Island |
8.5 |
0.8 |
Imputation
Small firms
Small to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Their variables are instead modelled from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. Ratios calculated from the postal sample units are applied to the administrative data to provide an estimate of their variables.
Non-response imputation
Although every attempt is made to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. Values for non-responding businesses are estimated by a number of methods, including:
- regression imputation
- historic imputation
- mean imputation.
Regression imputation involves estimating sales from the unit's administrative data (GST sales) based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying their response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement of similar businesses over the month. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses.
| Sales Imputed in the September 2009 Month |
| Retail industry |
Tax modelled |
Non-response |
|
Percentage of sales |
| Supermarket and grocery stores |
5.3 |
4.4 |
| Fresh meat, fish, poultry, fruit and vegetables |
7.6 |
12.9 |
| Liquor retailing |
10.0 |
13.1 |
| Other food retailing |
9.8 |
11.0 |
| Takeaway food retailing |
8.7 |
13.1 |
| Department stores |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Furniture and floor coverings |
12.0 |
9.6 |
| Hardware |
6.4 |
6.0 |
| Appliance retailing |
7.2 |
2.7 |
| Recreational goods |
9.0 |
11.5 |
| Clothing and softgoods |
9.5 |
14.9 |
| Footwear |
8.9 |
9.2 |
| Chemist |
3.8 |
6.3 |
| Household equipment repair services |
9.1 |
12.4 |
| Other retailing |
13.0 |
15.8 |
| Motor vehicle retailing |
10.0 |
11.9 |
| Automotive fuel retailing |
2.2 |
8.2 |
| Automotive electrical services, smash repairing, tyre retailing |
9.9 |
12.2 |
| Automotive repair and services, nec |
10.8 |
13.0 |
---PDF BREAK---
| Sales Imputed in the September 2009 Month |
| Retail industry |
Tax modelled |
Non-response |
|
Percentage of sales |
| Accommodation |
8.6 |
14.0 |
| Bar and clubs |
11.7 |
8.6 |
| Cafes and restaurants |
10.0 |
14.5 |
| Personal and household goods hiring |
10.4 |
12.7 |
| Other personal services |
14.1 |
19.4 |
| Total retail trade |
7.4 |
9.2 |
| Note: nec = not elsewhere classified |
Postal response rate
The response rate describes the proportion of geographic units that provided survey responses. Note that the calculation of this response rate relates only to data for the postal sample. The Retail Trade Survey has a target response rate of 85 percent. The response rate achieved for the September 2009 month was 90 percent.
For technical information contact:
Chris Stephenson or Yannick Monteyne
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz
Next release ...
Retail Trade Survey: October 2009 will be released on 14 December 2009.