Retail Trade Survey: June 2009 quarter

All references to sales movements are to seasonally adjusted series unless otherwise stated.

June 2009 quarter sales value summary

In the June 2009 quarter the value of total retail sales rose 1.1 percent ($174 million), the first increase in quarterly sales since the March 2008 quarter. The latest rise followed a record fall of 1.4 percent ($220 million) in the March 2009 quarter. In the June 2009 quarter, 15 of the 24 retail industries recorded increased sales.

The value of core retail sales (which excludes the four vehicle-related industries) also rose 1.1 percent ($129 million) in the June 2009 quarter, following a 0.4 percent increase in the March 2009 quarter.

In the vehicle-related industries, motor vehicle retailing sales increased for the first time since the September 2007 quarter (up 3.0 percent or $47 million). Despite this increase, the value of motor vehicle retailing sales in the latest quarter remains at about the same quarterly level as in 2001, approximately $1.6 billion. In the June 2009 quarter, automotive repair and services nec also rose (up 7.1 percent or $34 million). These two increases were partly offset by a fall in automotive fuel retailing sales (down 2.2 percent or $34 million) while sales were flat in the auto electrical, smash repair and tyres group (down just 0.1 percent or less than $1 million).

In core retailing, the biggest increases were in supermarkets and grocery stores (up 2.3 percent or $86 million); cafes and restaurants (up 3.4 percent or $33 million); appliance retailing (up 4.5 percent or $27 million); and takeaway food retailing (up 7.5 percent or $23 million). In all of these industries, the increased value was due to a combination of higher volumes and higher prices.

The biggest decreases in core retailing sales values were in other retailing (down 7.4 percent or $58 million) and accommodation (down 3.8 percent or $24 million).

 

June 2009 quarter sales volumes summary

All references to dollar values in this section are at September 1995 quarter prices.

The seasonally adjusted volume of total retail sales rose 0.4 percent (or $49 million in September 1995 quarter prices) in the June 2009 quarter. This is the first rise in total retail sales volumes since a 0.2 percent increase in the September 2007 quarter. It follows a record fall of 2.7 percent last quarter.

Core retailing sales volumes were up slightly, just 0.2 percent ($21 million), the first rise since a 0.3 percent increase in the March 2008 quarter and following a 1.0 percent decrease last quarter. Increased sales volumes were recorded in 11 of the 20 core industries, led by appliance retailing, up 3.1 percent; supermarkets and grocery stores, up 0.9 percent; and cafes and restaurants, up 2.5 percent. The biggest offsetting decrease was in the other retailing group, down 9.0 percent.

In the vehicle-related industries, sales volumes results were also mixed. Automotive fuel retailing volumes made the biggest contribution, up 2.8 percent, and there was a 4.8 percent increase in automotive repair and services nec. Sales volumes fell 2.5 percent in auto electrical, smash repair and tyres. There was little change in motor vehicle retailing, with volumes falling by just 0.2 percent.

In the June 2009 quarter the seasonally adjusted volume of retail sales per head of population was 0.1 percent higher than in the March 2009 quarter, the first quarterly increase since September 2007.

June 2009 quarter trends

The trend in total retail sales value fell 2.4 percent between the June 2008 and March 2009 quarters, the most sustained period of decline since the series began in the September 1995 quarter. Latest figures suggest that the decline may have stopped as the June 2009 quarter shows only a slight movement, up 0.1 percent. However, initial trend estimates may be revised and should be used with caution until more data points are available.

The trend in the value of core retail sales has been rising since the beginning of the series. Since the March 2008 quarter, the rate of increase has strengthened to a quarterly average of 0.6 percent. This lift follows a flat period, from September 2007 to March 2008, when the average rate of increase was just 0.3 percent per quarter, the slowest rate of increase since late 1997 to mid-1998.

The trend in total retail sales volumes has been in decline since the June 2007 quarter, and has fallen 7.2 percent since then. This is the longest and fastest period of decline since the series began in September 1995. The biggest contributor to the fall in volumes is motor vehicle retailing, which has been falling since June 2007, and is down 28.9 percent since then.

The trend in core retail sales volumes has been either flat or in decline since the June 2007 quarter, and has fallen 2.1 percent since then. The biggest contributor to the current period of decline is furniture and floor coverings, down 23.7 percent since the September 2007 quarter. Apart from a fall of 0.4 percent in mid-1998, the core volumes trend had been rising since the series began in September 1995. From September 1995 until June 2007, the core retail sales volumes trend rose 64 percent.

The trend in the value of retail sales per head of population has been falling since the December 2007 quarter, down 3.7 percent since then. The trend in the volume of retail sales per head of population has been falling for a longer period (since the June 2007 quarter), and is down 9.0 percent since then.---PDF BREAK---

Actual sales June 2009 quarter

In the June 2009 quarter compared with the June 2008 quarter:

• the value of actual retail sales was $15.6 billion, down 1.8 percent
• the volume of actual retail sales, expressed in September 1995 quarter prices, was $13.0 billion, down 4.0 percent.

Supermarket and grocery stores

The value of supermarket and grocery store sales rose 2.3 percent ($86 million) in the June 2009 quarter, making this industry the main contributor to the increase in total sales this quarter. The supermarket and grocery store sales rise was due to increases in both prices and volumes, with volumes up 0.9 percent.

Since the series began in September 1995, the trend in sales values has been rising. Through the middle of 2008, the rate of increase averaged just 0.6 percent per quarter, the flattest rate of increase since mid-2004. However, since the September 2008 quarter, the rate of increase in the trend has strengthened to 2.5 percent per quarter.

The trend in the volume of sales has risen 3.1 percent since September 2008 following a 3.6 percent fall between the March and September 2008 quarters.

Motor vehicle retailing

The value of motor vehicle retailing sales increased 3.0 percent ($47 million) in the June 2009 quarter, the first increase since the September 2007 quarter. However, the value of motor vehicle retailing sales in the latest quarter remains at about the same quarterly level as in 2001, approximately $1.6 billion. The volume of sales fell slightly in the June 2009 quarter (down 0.2 percent) but this was more than offset by higher prices.

The trend in motor vehicle retailing sales value has been falling since June 2007 and is now 26.6 percent lower. The volume trend, which has also been falling since June 2007, has gone down 28.9 percent.

The value trend is at its lowest level since December 2000; the volume trend is at its lowest level since March 2001.

Appliance retailing

The value of appliance retailing sales rose 4.5 percent ($27 million) in the June 2009 quarter following a fall of 6.5 percent ($42 million) in the March 2009 quarter. The volume of sales also rose, up 3.1 percent in the latest quarter, following a fall of 5.2 percent in the March 2009 quarter.

The retail trade sales deflators (which are not seasonally adjusted) show June 2009 quarter prices in appliance retailing were 1.5 percent higher than in the March 2009 quarter, but 2.1 percent lower than in the June 2008 quarter.

The trend in the value of appliance retailing sales fell 1.7 percent through the December 2008 and March 2009 quarters. However, latest figures suggest the decline has stopped as the June 2009 quarter has only a slight movement, up 0.3 percent. The trend in the volume of sales has fallen 2.1 percent since the December 2008 quarter, the first time this series has fallen for more than one quarter. Initial trend estimates should be used with caution as they may be revised as more data points become available.

Other retailing

Other retailing sales values fell 7.4 percent ($58 million) in the June 2009 quarter, following a rise of 6.4 percent ($47 million) in the March 2009 quarter. The March and June 2009 quarterly movements are the biggest rise and biggest fall recorded in this industry since the beginning of the series in September 1995. Other retailing is a diverse industry and includes activities such as retailing antique and used goods, flowers, garden supplies, watches, and jewellery.

The fall in the June 2009 quarter in the other retailing industry is the largest of any industry this quarter. Sales volumes were also down in the June 2009 quarter, falling 9.0 percent.

Previously published figures for the March 2009 quarter suggested the other retailing sales trends, for both values and volumes, were increasing strongly. However, latest data indicate that both trends may now be falling.

Automotive fuel retailing

Despite a 2.8 percent increase in sales volumes in the June 2009 quarter, the value of automotive fuel retailing sales fell 2.2 percent ($34 million), the fourth consecutive quarter to record a fall in sales value. The automotive fuel retailing price deflators (which are not seasonally adjusted) show prices in the latest quarter were 17.2 percent lower than in the June 2008 quarter.

The trend in the value of automotive fuel retailing sales has been falling since the June 2008 quarter, down 17.2 percent since then. The trend in the volume of sales fell during 2008, down a total of 5.7 percent, but in the first two quarters of 2009 the trend has risen 2.8 percent.

Accommodation

The value of accommodation sales was down 3.8 percent ($24 million) in the June 2009 quarter, as a result of decreases in both prices and volumes. Sales volumes were down 2.2 percent.

Sales trends in values and volumes are both declining. The values trend has been falling since the September 2008 quarter and is down 7.4 percent since then; the volumes trend has been flat or falling for longer, since the March 2007 quarter, down a total of 11.2 percent. The falls in both trends are the fastest and most sustained since the series began in September 1995.

Stocks

The actual value of stock held at the end of the June 2009 quarter was 5.5 percent ($310 million) lower than at the end of the June 2008 quarter. Since September 1998, the latest quarter is only the second to record a decrease in the value of stock held when compared with the same period of the previous year. In March 2009, the value of stock held was 3.6 percent lower than in March 2008.---PDF BREAK---

Compared with a year earlier, 15 of the 24 retail industries held decreased stock values. The biggest decreases were:

• motor vehicle retailing, down $293 million (24.0 percent)
• department stores, down $69 million (10.2 percent)
• recreational goods retailing, down $51 million (10.7 percent)
• other retailing, down $33 million (5.6 percent)
• furniture and floor coverings retailing, down $30 million (14.4 percent).

Of the nine industries that held increased stock values, the biggest increases were:

• clothing and softgoods retailing, up $90 million (22.6 percent)
• supermarket and grocery stores, up $47 million (10.0 percent)
• appliance retailing, up $43 million (12.7 percent).

Regional estimates

In the June 2009 quarter, the value of seasonally adjusted sales fell in Wellington and Canterbury but rose in other regions. Changes in sales were as follows:

• Auckland, up 2.0 percent or $102 million
• Waikato, up 3.1 percent or $44 million
• Wellington, down 0.4 percent or $8 million
• Remainder of the North Island, up 0.9 percent or $31 million
• Canterbury, down 1.9 percent or $40 million
• Remainder of the South Island, up 1.9 percent or $38 million.

Illustrated in the graph below, regional sales trends are as follows:

• Auckland – the trend fell 4.1 percent in the five quarters from March 2008 to March 2009 but appears to have reached a turning point in March 2009 and is showing growth in the June 2009 quarter.
• Waikato – the trend fell 2.7 percent through the December 2008 and March 2009 quarters but, as in Auckland, appears to have reached a turning point in March and is showing growth in the latest quarter.
• Wellington – the trend has been falling since the June 2008 quarter, down 5.2 percent since then.
• Remainder of the North Island – the trend has been falling since the March 2008 quarter, down 4.9 percent since then; the rate of decline appears to be easing.
• Canterbury – previously published figures in the March 2009 quarter release suggested the trend was continuing to rise. However, latest figures indicate the trend peaked in the December 2008 quarter and has fallen 1.4 percent since then.
• Remainder of the South Island – the trend fell 2.3 percent in the four quarters from June 2008 to March 2009 but appears to have reached a turning point in March 2009 and is showing growth in the June 2009 quarter.

Note: The trend series in the Quarterly Index Numbers graph have been indexed to a base June 2005 quarter (=1000) for the purpose of comparing regional trends over a four-year period.

Contributions to total actual sales in the June 2009 quarter were:

• Auckland, 32.3 percent
• Waikato, 9.2 percent
• Wellington, 10.9 percent
• remainder of North Island, 22.4 percent
• Canterbury, 13.2 percent
• remainder of South Island, 11.9 percent.

Note that seasonal adjustment is run separately for each region and each industry, allowing the identification of individual variations in seasonal patterns. The total retail sales figure is calculated by adding industry data and therefore may not show exactly the same pattern as the sum of regional data.

June 2009 month

Seasonally adjusted total retail sales were flat in June 2009 compared with May 2009, rising just 0.1 percent ($6 million). Sales in core retail, which excludes the vehicle-related industries, fell 0.4 percent ($15 million) in June 2009, with sales down in 12 of the 20 core industries.

Of the total industries, most experienced little change between May and June 2009, with 15 moving (plus or minus) less than $5 million. Each of the four vehicle-related industries showed a rise in sales. The largest of these rises was automotive fuel retailing, up 2.0 percent ($10 million).

Within the core retail series, the largest decrease came from clothing and softgoods retailing (down 9.1 percent or $21 million), following a 12.7 percent increase last month. The second largest decrease was from cafes and restaurants (down 2.5 percent or $8 million). The largest offsetting increases were from appliance retailing (up 9.9 percent or $20 million) and supermarket and grocery stores (up 0.9 percent or $11 million).

The total retail sales trend has been rising slowly since February 2009 and has risen 0.6 percent since then. This follows a 13-month period from February 2008 to February 2009 when the trend was negative, falling 3.2 percent during that time. The core retailing trend continues to rise, with an average monthly increase since April 2007 of 0.1 percent. This compares with an average increase of 0.4 percent per month since September 1995 when the series began rising.

The actual sales level for June 2009 was 1.1 percent below that of June 2008. In June 2009, six industries had falls exceeding $20 million, with supermarket and grocery stores (down $40 million or 3.2 percent) and department stores (down $30 million or 9.7 percent) recording the biggest movements. This is the eighth consecutive month in which total sales have been lower than in the same month a year earlier. Before 2008, the last time that sales were lower than for the same month in the previous year was in October 1998.

In June 2009, seasonally adjusted sales decreased in all regions except Auckland and Waikato. Canterbury had the biggest decrease (down 2.2 percent or $15 million), followed by the remainder of the South Island (down 1.1 percent or $7.5 million). Trend figures show continuing increases in Auckland, Waikato, and the Remainder of the South Island, while Wellington and the Remainder of the North Island are flattening after being in decline since early 2008. Canterbury has been declining since January 2009, down 3.3 percent since then.

Revisions

There were no revisions in the June 2009 quarter.

Comparison statistics

For the June 2009 quarter compared with the March 2009 quarter:

• The consumers price index rose 0.6 percent.
• New Zealand Transport Agency figures showed new registrations of cars and station wagons (including cars previously registered overseas) were down 6.8 percent.

Long-term comparisons:

• Credit card billings in New Zealand, including spending using New Zealand and overseas issued cards, rose 2.6 percent in the month of June 2009 and fell 2.6 percent in the June 2009 quarter (each compared with the same period of the previous year).---PDF BREAK---

Other:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) began the quarter at 3.00 percent and was reduced to 2.50 percent on 30 April where it remained at the end of the June quarter.

Measurement errors

All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors. These include both sample errors and non-sample errors. In addition, the survey applies imputation methodologies to cope with small firms and non-response. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the results from the survey. For more information on measurement errors, please refer to the technical notes of this release.

Sample errors

The postal survey was designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

• 2 percent for sales at the total national retail trade level
• 10 percent for sales at the published national retail industry level.

This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total retail trade sales lies within 2 percent of the published estimate.

Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries, all large firms are surveyed and all small to medium-sized firms are modelled using administrative data sourced from Inland Revenue.

Imputation

Small firms

Small to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Their variables are instead modelled from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. Ratios calculated from the postal sample units are applied to the administrative data to provide an estimate of their variables.

Non-response imputation

Although every attempt is made to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. Values for non-responding businesses are estimated by a number of methods, including:

• regression imputation
• historic imputation
• mean imputation.

Regression imputation involves estimating sales from the unit's administrative data (GST sales) based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying their response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement of similar businesses over the month. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses.

Postal response rate

The response rate describes the proportion of geographic units that provided survey responses. Note that the calculation of this response rate relates only to data for the postal sample. The Retail Trade Survey has a target response rate of 85 percent. The response rate achieved for the June 2009 month was 92 percent.

 

For technical information contact:
Chris Stephenson or Ken Smart
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz

Next release ...

Retail Trade Survey: July 2009 will be released on 14 September 2009.