Retail Trade Survey: January 2010

All references to sales movements are to seasonally adjusted series unless otherwise stated.

January 2010

Total retail sales rose 0.8 percent ($42 million) in January 2010, following a 0.4 percent fall in December 2009. The increase in sales was led by the vehicle-related industries (up 2.1 percent or $29 million), with a lesser rise in core retailing.

Core retail sales (which exclude the four vehicle-related industries) rose 0.3 percent ($12 million), following a 2.0 percent fall in December 2009. The increase in core retailing was led by recreational goods retailing and accommodation; these were the only two industries in core retailing with movements exceeding $5 million.

By industry, the largest increases were:

• automotive fuel retailing – up 2.8 percent ($15 million)
• motor vehicle retailing – up 2.0 percent ($12 million)
• recreational goods retailing – up 4.8 percent ($9 million)
• accommodation – up 3.0 percent ($6 million).

The largest decreases were:

• other retailing – down 2.0 percent ($5 million)
• hardware retailing – down 2.8 percent ($3 million)
• cafes and restaurants – down 0.8 percent ($3 million)
• liquor retailing – down 2.6 percent ($3 million).

Eighteen of the 20 core retail industries moved up or down by $5 million or less.

Sales trend

The total retail sales trend has continued to rise, and has increased 3.3 percent since February 2009. The trend is now at a similar level to February 2008, before the decline between February 2008 and February 2009.

Having been mostly flat between mid-2007 and early 2009, the core retail sales trend strengthened slightly in mid-2009. However, the sales trend has eased again since then, and is now flat.

Vehicle-related industries

For the second consecutive month, the vehicle-related industries had the biggest increase in total retail sales, with a $29 million combined sales increase in January 2010. The two largest contributors to the overall increase in retail sales were:

• automotive fuel retailing, with sales up 2.8 percent ($15 million); both petrol and diesel prices increased over the course of the month
• motor vehicle retailing, with sales up 2.0 percent ($12 million).

Automotive fuel retailing and motor vehicle retailing are the second and third largest industries in the Retail Trade Survey (behind supermarket and grocery stores).

Sales trends for these two industries were:

• automotive fuel retailing – the trend has been rising since July 2009, up 8.4 percent; the rate of increase has been strong and consistent and has averaged 1.4 percent per month
• motor vehicle retailing – the trend has been rising since March 2009, up 10.6 percent; the monthly rate of increase averaged 0.7 percent between April and September 2009, and has risen to 1.5 percent since September 2009.

Core industries

Core retail sales had a 0.3 percent ($12 million) increase in January 2010. The main movements in the core retail industries were:

• recreational goods retailing – sales were up 4.8 percent ($9 million), following a 4.9 percent fall in December 2009
• accommodation – sales were up 3.0 percent ($6 million)
• other retailing – sales were down 2.0 percent ($5 million).

All other core retail industries had movements of less than $5 million.

Core industries with notable trend movements include:

• department stores – up 2.7 percent since June 2009
• recreational goods retailing – the trend has been rising since August 2008, up 8.1 percent; the trend is at its highest level since May 1995 when the series began
• supermarket and grocery stores – down 2.3 percent since August 2009
• liquor retailing – down 3.3 percent since May 2009; this is the longest sustained period of decline since the May 1999–April 2000 fall.

Regional estimates

In January 2010, the value of seasonally adjusted sales was up in the North Island (up 1.5 percent) and was flat in the South Island (down just 0.2 percent). The only region with a sales decrease was Canterbury, down 0.9 percent.

The sales trend has been rising in the North Island since February 2009 (up 3.9 percent), and in the South Island since June 2009 (up 1.8 percent). Whilst the trend in the North Island has been increasing steadily at an average monthly rate of 0.4 percent since March 2009, the rate of increase in the South Island trend has been slowing in the latest months.

Illustrated in the graph above, the regional sales trends are as follows:

• Auckland – the trend has been rising, up 5.6 percent since January 2009. However, the rate of increase has slowed, averaging 0.2 percent in the last four months.
• Waikato – the trend has been rising, up 3.8 percent since February 2009. The rate of increase has been strengthening in recent months, averaging 0.5 percent.
• Wellington – the trend has been rising, up 1.5 percent since September 2009.
• Remainder of the North Island – the trend has been rising, up 4.4 percent since April 2009.
• Canterbury – the trend appears to have reached a turning point in October 2009, and has been falling, down 0.8 percent since then. Initial trend estimates should be used with caution as they may be revised as more data points become available.
• Remainder of the South Island – the trend has been rising since January 2009, up 6.3 percent.

Revisions

As a result of updated respondent information, revisions have been made to the actual sales series for automotive fuel retailing for the December 2009 month, and for the actual stock series for the December 2009 quarter. Consequently total and regional sales figures have been revised. Corresponding revisions have also been made to the seasonally adjusted and trend series.

Quarterly sales values, sales volumes, and stocks have also been revised for the December 2009 quarter, at the industry and regional levels. They can be found on Infoshare or are available on request.

The main changes are as follows:

 

 

 

Comparison statistics

For January 2010 compared with December 2009:

• The food price index rose 2.1 percent.
• New registrations of cars and station wagons (including vehicles previously registered overseas) rose 7.4 percent.
• Seasonally adjusted short-term overseas visitor arrivals fell 2.4 percent.
• As first published (on 10 February 2010), the seasonally adjusted value of the retail Electronic Card Transaction (ECT) series rose 0.5 percent, and the seasonally adjusted value of the core retail ECT series were flat (down 0.1 percent).

Other:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate was unchanged at 2.50 percent throughout January 2010.

Measurement errors

All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors. These include both sample errors and non-sample errors. In addition, the survey applies imputation methodologies to cope with small firms and non-response. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the results from the survey. For more information on measurement errors, please refer to the 'Technical notes' of this release.

Sample errors

The postal survey was designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

• 2 percent for sales at the total national retail trade level
• 10 percent for sales at the published national retail industry level.

This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total retail trade sales lies within 2 percent of the published estimate.

At the industry level, the following sample errors occurred in the January 2010 month (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

 

Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries, all large firms are surveyed and all small to medium-sized firms are modelled using administrative data sourced from Inland Revenue.

 

Imputation

Small firms

Small- to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Their variables are instead modelled from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. Ratios calculated from the postal sample units are applied to the administrative data to provide an estimate of their variables.

Non-response imputation

Although every attempt is made to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. Values for non-responding businesses are estimated by a number of methods, including:

• regression imputation
• historic imputation
• mean imputation.

Regression imputation involves estimating sales from the unit's administrative data (GST sales) based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying their response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement of similar businesses over the month. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses.

Postal response rate

The response rate describes the proportion of geographic units that provided survey responses. Note that the calculation of this response rate relates only to data for the postal sample. The Retail Trade Survey has a target response rate of 85 percent. The response rate achieved for the January 2010 survey was 90 percent.

The table below indicates the percentage of sales imputed in the January 2010 month:

 

For technical information contact:
Yannick Monteyne or Chris Stephenson
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz

Next release ...

Retail Trade Survey: February 2010 will be released on 14 April 2010.