Retail Trade Survey: August 2009

All references to sales movements are to seasonally adjusted series unless otherwise stated.

August 2009

In August 2009, seasonally adjusted core retail sales were up 1.2 percent ($49 million) while total retail sales also rose, up 1.1 percent ($60 million). As indicated in the graph below, two-thirds of all retail industries showed increases in August. These increases follow decreases in July, when core retail was down 0.6 percent and total retail down 0.5 percent.

The largest increases in core retailing were clothing and softgoods retailing – up 6.5 percent ($14 million), followed by hardware retailing – up 7.2 percent ($9 million). Decreases were comparatively small, with the largest being $3 million in supermarket and grocery stores.

In the vehicle-related industries, three of the four showed an increase, led by automotive fuel retailing (up 1.9 percent or $10 million). The only industry to decrease was motor vehicle retailing (down 1.4 percent or $7 million).

 

Sales trend

The total retail sales trend has been rising since February 2009, and has increased 1.4 percent since then, following a 13-month period of decline.

The average rate of increase in the core retail trend had flattened to 0.1 percent per month between mid-2007 and early 2009, but since April has risen to 0.3 percent. The long-term average since the series started increasing in September 1995 is 0.4 percent per month.

Clothing and softgoods retailing

Clothing and softgoods retailing recorded the biggest increase in retail sales, up 6.5 percent ($14 million).

This last increase coincided with what was described as an early start to spring, being the warmest August on record. Going back three months, winter also came early this year and clothing and softgoods sales increased substantially in May.

The sales trend has been increasing since March 2009, up 6.7 percent since then. The current level exceeds the previous high recorded in December 2007.

Hardware retailing

Hardware retailing recorded the second-largest increase in core retail sales, with a 7.2 percent increase ($9 million) in August 2009.

Although the sales trend is showing a 2.5 percent increase since March 2009, the level is still 7.1 percent lower than the peak recorded in September 2007.

Automotive fuel retailing

Automotive fuel retailing had the biggest increase of the four vehicle-related industries, and the second-biggest increase of all retail industries, up 1.9 percent or $10 million. Both petrol and diesel prices, which are not seasonally adjusted, went up slightly in August.

The sales trend has been declining since July 2008, down 19.0 percent since then.

Motor vehicle retailing

Motor vehicle retailing had the largest decrease in retail sales in August 2009, down 1.4 percent ($7 million), and the only decrease in vehicle-related industries. This follows increases of 1.4 and 1.8 percent in June and July 2009, respectively.

The sales trend has been increasing since March 2009, with the sales level up 2.9 percent since then. However, the level is still down 25.1 percent compared with the series' peak in May 2007.

Regional estimates

Sales were up in both the North Island (up 1.0 percent) and the South Island (up 2.0 percent) compared with July 2009. Changes by region were as follows:

• Auckland – up 0.4 percent
• Waikato – down 0.2 percent
• Wellington – down 0.9 percent
• Remainder of the North Island – up 3.3 percent
• Canterbury – up 1.2 percent
• Remainder of the South Island – up 2.8 percent.

After a period of decline between February 2008 and February 2009, the trend for the North Island began rising, and is up 1.3 percent since February 2009. The South Island sales trend has declined since February 2009, down 1.1 percent since then.

Note: The trend series in the graph above have been indexed to a base: June 2005 (=1000) for the purpose of comparing regional trends over four years.

Illustrated in the graph above, the regional sales trends are as follows:

• Auckland – the trend has been rising, up 4.2 percent since February 2009
• Waikato – up 1.1 percent since February 2009, but flattening in the latest months
• Wellington – down 7.3 percent since March 2008
• Remainder of the North Island – down 4.9 percent since February 2008; the trend has been flat since March 2009
• Canterbury – the trend has fallen 4.4 percent since January 2009
• Remainder of the South Island – has risen 2.7 percent since January 2009.

Revisions

There were no revisions to the Retail Trade Survey in the August 2009 month.

Comparison statistics

For August 2009 compared with July 2009:

• The food price index fell 0.9 percent.
• New registrations of cars and station wagons (including vehicles previously registered overseas) fell 3.2 percent.
• Seasonally adjusted short-term overseas visitor arrivals fell 0.8 percent.
• As first published (on 9 September 2009), the seasonally adjusted value of the retail Electronic Card Transaction (ECT) series rose 0.2 percent, and the seasonally adjusted value of the core retail ECT series rose 0.1 percent.

Other:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate was unchanged at 2.50 percent throughout August 2009.

Measurement errors

All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors. These include both sample errors and non-sample errors. In addition, the survey applies imputation methodologies to cope with small firms and non-response. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the results from the survey. For more information on measurement errors, please refer to the 'Technical notes' of this release.

Sample errors

The postal survey was designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

• 2 percent for sales at the total national retail trade level
• 10 percent for sales at the published national retail industry level.

This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total retail trade sales lies within 2 percent of the published estimate.---PDF BREAK---

 

Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries, all large firms are surveyed and all small to medium-sized firms are modelled using administrative data sourced from Inland Revenue.---PDF BREAK---

 

Imputation

Small firms

Small to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Their variables are instead modelled from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. Ratios calculated from the postal sample units are applied to the administrative data to provide an estimate of their variables.

Non-response imputation

Although every attempt is made to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. Values for non-responding businesses are estimated by a number of methods, including:

• regression imputation
• historic imputation
• mean imputation.

Regression imputation involves estimating sales from the unit's administrative data (GST sales) based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying their response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement of similar businesses over the month. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses.

Postal response rate

The response rate describes the proportion of geographic units that provided survey responses. Note that the calculation of this response rate relates only to data for the postal sample. The Retail Trade Survey has a target response rate of 85 percent. The response rate achieved for the August 2009 survey was 90 percent.---PDF BREAK---

For technical information contact:
Chris Stephenson or Yannick Monteyne
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz

Next release ...
Retail Trade Survey: September 2009 quarter will be released on 12 November 2009.