New Zealand period life tables
This release presents results from the 2005–07 New Zealand (complete) period life tables. Life tables have been produced for the total New Zealand, Māori and non-Māori populations. Official life tables for other ethnic groups, such as the broad Asian and Pacific ethnic groups, are not available because of the relatively small size of these ethnic populations, relatively few death registrations, and uncertainty associated with ethnic identification and measurement. Statistics New Zealand is not yet confident that life tables provide a statistically robust measure of the mortality and survival experience of these ethnic populations for a given period (eg 2005–07) or over time (eg between 2000–02 and 2005–07), other than for Māori and non-Māori.
The period life tables show the mortality and survival experience of the population, based on people dying in the specific period (eg 2005–07). Various life table functions are derived and presented, including life expectancies at birth (age 0) and at other ages. The life expectancies from period life tables assume that people experience the observed mortality rates of the given period throughout their lives. In reality, death rates do not remain constant. Hence, if death rates continue to decrease, people born during 2005–07 will experience greater longevity than implied by the 2005–07 period life tables.
Statistics NZ has recently developed cohort life tables covering the New Zealand population born in each year from 1876. The cohort life tables provide the most authoritative measures of life expectancy actually experienced by the New Zealand population at each age, and are updated and extended each year. For example, the cohort life tables indicate that males and females born in the early 1930s have lived for about 70 and 75 years, respectively, on average. By comparison, it was not until the mid-1970s that period life tables indicated similar life expectancies at birth. Hence, the period life tables measure the life expectancy of the population at a moment in time, but not the actual life expectancy experienced by a birth cohort. More information on the cohort life tables is available from the Statistics NZ website (www.stats.govt.nz).
Age distribution of deaths
In 2005–07, there were 83,801 deaths of New Zealand residents registered in New Zealand, comprising 41,630 male deaths and 42,171 female deaths.
The median age of the New Zealand population is rising. As a result, the number of deaths at older ages is increasing. Half of male deaths in 2005–07 occurred at age 76 years and over, while half of female deaths occurred at age 82 years and over. In 1975–77, the median age at death was 69 and 75 years for males and females, respectively.
In 1975–77, 5 percent of deaths were among children (those under 15 years). In 2005–07, children accounted for less than 2 percent of deaths. Between the periods 1975–77 and 2005–07, the proportion of male deaths occurring at age 65 years and over increased from 60 to 73 percent. The corresponding female proportion rose from 72 to 82 percent.
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Death rates by age
The New Zealand life tables are comparable with other OECD countries. The total population life tables are characterised by relatively high death rates in the first year of life (about 5 deaths per 1,000 live births). Death rates then decrease as age increases and are at their lowest among ages 7–11 years. Death rates then increase to a hump around age 20 years, although this hump is less pronounced for males and more pronounced for females than it was in previous decades. The leading causes of death at ages 15–24 years are external causes such as accidents, violence and poisoning (New Zealand Health Information Service 2007). Death rates then increase gradually with age, reaching 1 death per 100 people for males aged in the early 60s and females aged in the late 60s. For males aged in the mid-80s and females aged in the late 80s, death rates have reached 1 death per 10 people. Females experience lower death rates than males at all ages.
Infant death rates
The proportion of infants dying in the first year of life is about 5 per 1,000 or 0.5 percent (average of male and female). The Māori rate of about 7 per 1,000 (or 0.7 percent) is roughly 1.6 times higher than the non-Māori rate of about 4 per 1,000 (or 0.4 percent).
Age contribution to increase in life expectancy at birth
Over the five-year period, 2000–02 to 2005–07, New Zealand life expectancy at birth increased by 1.7 years for males and by 1.0 years for females. Two-thirds of these gains were due to the reduction in death rates among late working and retirement ages (60–84 years). Reduced death rates among men and women aged in their 50s also made a significant contribution. Among females, the age group 15–19 years experienced a small increase in death rates, meaning this age group made a small negative contribution to the longevity gain.
Over a longer 30-year period, 1975–77 to 2005–07, New Zealand life expectancy at birth increased by 9.0 years for males and by 6.7 years for females. The main contribution was again from the reduction in death rates among late working ages (50–64 years) and retirement ages (65–79 years). However, reduced death rates among infants, men and women in their 40s, and women aged 80 years and over were also significant.
Among Māori, life expectancy at birth increased by 1.4 years for males and by 1.9 years for females between 2000–02 and 2005–07. These gains were due largely to the reduction in death rates among late working ages (50–64 years) and retirement ages (65–79 years). Small increases in death rates were observed at some younger ages.
Male/female differentials
For the total population, males experience higher death rates than females at all ages. Males die at more than twice the rate of females at ages 18–30 years, and more than three times that of females at ages 23–27 years. Among Māori, males die at more than twice the rate of females at ages 18–29 years.
In 2005–07, life expectancy at birth for females exceeded that of males by 4.1 years for the total New Zealand population, by 4.7 years for Māori, and by 4.0 years for non-Māori. For the total and non-Māori populations, two-thirds of the difference is due to higher male death rates at ages 55–89 years. For the Māori population, two-thirds of the difference is due to higher male death rates at ages 40–79 years.
Ethnic differentials
Ethnic data must always be interpreted with caution, partly because ethnic identity can change over time and between different data collections (eg depending on the respondent and the context of the data collection).
Māori experience higher death rates than non-Māori at all ages. Māori die at more than double the rate of non-Māori among males aged 2–6 and 28–72 years, and females aged 2–4, 12–17 and 25–75 years.
As a result of the differences in death rates, life expectancy at birth for non-Māori exceeded that of Māori by 8.6 years for males and by 7.9 years for females in 2005–07. For males, three-quarters of these differences in longevity are due to higher Māori death rates at ages 40–79 years. For females, three-quarters of these differences in longevity are due to higher Māori death rates at ages 50–84 years.
The Māori/non-Māori differential partly reflects different rates of diabetes and smoking, as well as socio-economic differentials. The latest cause-of-death statistics show age-standardised death rates from diabetes were nearly six times higher for Māori than non-Māori in 2004 (New Zealand Health Information Service 2007). The 2006 Census reported that 42 percent of Māori aged 15 years and over were regular smokers, compared with 18 percent of non-Māori.
The gap between Māori and non-Māori life expectancy has narrowed. In 1995–97, it stood at 9.1 years (average of male and female). By 2000–02 it had dropped to about 8.5 years. In 2005–07, the gap was 8.2 years.
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However, the observed gap for males between Māori and non-Māori life expectancy has fluctuated, dropping from 8.8 years in 1995–97 to 8.2 years in 2000–02, but increasing to 8.6 years in 2005–07. In contrast, the gap for females between Māori and non-Māori life expectancy has dropped from 9.3 years in 1995–97 to 8.8 years in 2000–02 to 7.9 years in 2005–07.
Official life tables are unavailable for other ethnic populations, such as the broad Asian and Pacific populations, partly because of the relatively small size of these ethnic populations and relatively few deaths. Reliable life tables therefore cannot be produced. Nevertheless, other mortality measures, such as age-standardised death rates, indicate that Pacific death rates are part-way between Māori and total death rates, while European and Asian death rates are lower than non-Māori death rates.
Chance of survival
The 2005–07 life tables indicate that 96 percent of newborn babies can expect to reach 50 years of age. About 90 percent of newborn girls and 86 percent of newborn boys can expect to live to 65 years of age. After that, the chance of survival decreases rapidly. About 68 percent of newborn girls and 55 percent of newborn boys can expect to live to 80 years of age. About 11 percent of newborn girls and 6 percent of newborn boys can expect to live to 95 years of age. The chance of reaching 100 years is about 1 in 50 (or 2 percent) for newborn girls and 1 in 110 (or 1 percent) for newborn boys.
International comparison
In 2005–07, New Zealanders’ life expectancy at birth was 82.2 years for females and 78.0 years for males. This was slightly below the OECD median of 82.3 years for females and slightly above the OECD median of 77.2 years for males (OECD 2008). Out of 30 OECD countries, New Zealand was ranked 17th for females and ninth for males. In 1960–61, New Zealand’s ranking was ninth for females and seventh equal for males. Through the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, longevity improved faster in many other OECD countries than in New Zealand. Since the 1980s, faster-than-average gains in life expectancy in New Zealand, particularly for males, have improved New Zealand's relative position.
For technical information contact:
Kim Dunstan or Emma Gee
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: demography@stats.govt.nz