Food Price Index: June 2009

Commentary

Food prices in June 2009

Food prices increased 2.8 percent in June 2009, following an increase of 0.3 percent in May 2009 and a decrease of 0.6 percent in April 2009. This is the largest monthly increase since a 3.8 percent increase in July 1989, when GST was increased from 10 percent to 12.5 percent.

All five of the food subgroups increased in June 2009. The most significant upward contribution came from higher prices for the fruit and vegetables subgroup (up 15.0 percent), followed by grocery food (up 1.1 percent), meat, poultry and fish (up 2.1 percent), non-alcoholic beverages (up 0.3 percent), and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (up 0.1 percent).

The most significant individual upward contributions came from higher prices for lettuce (up 122.8 percent) and tomatoes (up 66.7 percent).

The most significant individual downward contribution came from lower prices for oranges (down 15.3 percent).

Graph, Index Points Contribution to FPI June 2009.   

Monthly Index Points Contribution
Subgroup April 2009 to
May 2009
May 2009 to
June 2009
Fruit and vegetables
Meat, poultry and fish
Grocery food
Non-alcoholic beverages
Restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food
-4.05
0.02
4.75
2.21
0.49
22.85
4.31
4.86
0.30
0.25
Food Price Index 3.42 32.57
Note: Index points contributions may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Distribution of item-level movements

The table below outlines the distribution of price movements in June 2009 and May 2009. The Food Price Index (FPI) has been partitioned into those national item-level indexes that increased, showed no change, or decreased.

Distribution of Item-level Index Movements
National item-level index movements April 2009 to
May 2009
May 2009 to
June 2009
Increase in price
Number of items
Percentage of all items
Percentage of expenditure weight
Index points contribution
Weighted average price increase (percent)
91
58.0
56.7
19.2
2.9
103
65.6
67.4
38.2
4.8
No change in price
Number of items
Percentage of all items
Percentage of expenditure weight
6
3.8
3.2
4
2.5
1.8
Decrease in price
Number of items
Percentage of all items
Percentage of expenditure weight
Index points contribution
Weighted average price decrease (percent)
60
38.2
40.1
-15.8
3.4
50
31.8
30.8
-5.6
1.6

The distribution of item-level movements shows that:

  • the percentage of expenditure weight of items that increased in price rose significantly, while the percentage of expenditure weight of items that decreased in price fell significantly.
  • the weighted average price increase rose significantly and the weighted average price decrease fell significantly.
  • the weighted average price increase is three times the size of the weighted average price decrease.

These movements resulted in a 2.8 percent increase in the June 2009 FPI, compared with a 0.3 percent increase in May 2009.

Annual movements

Food prices increased 8.4 percent in the year to June 2009, following increases of 6.8 percent and 7.6 percent in the years to May and April 2009, respectively.---PDF BREAK---

All five of the food subgroups increased in the year to June 2009. The most significant upward contribution came from the grocery food subgroup (up 7.9 percent), followed by the meat, poultry and fish (up 12.1 percent), fruit and vegetables (up 12.7 percent), restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (up 4.3 percent), and non-alcoholic beverages (up 7.3 percent) subgroups.

Within these subgroups, the most significant upward contributions came from higher prices for bread (up 14.5 percent), prepared meats and smallgoods (up 18.9 percent), and ready-to-eat food (up 4.4 percent).

The most significant downward contributions came from lower prices for cheddar cheese (down 16.4 percent) and butter (down 19.9 percent).

Annual Index Points Contribution
Subgroup June 2008 to
June 2009
Grocery food
Meat, poultry and fish
Fruit and vegetables
Restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food
Non-alcoholic beverages
33.53
22.49
19.72
10.01
8.32
Food Price Index 94.06
Note: Index points contributions may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Fruit and vegetables

Prices for the fruit and vegetables subgroup increased 15.0 percent in the June 2009 month, following decreases of 2.6 percent and 2.0 percent in May 2009 and April 2009, respectively. Higher fruit and vegetable prices are common during the winter months, and the fruit and vegetables index is now at levels comparable with August 2008. Vegetable prices increased 23.2 percent, while fruit prices increased 3.9 percent in June 2009.

The most significant individual upward contributions came from higher prices for lettuce (up 122.8 percent) and tomatoes (up 66.7 percent). Higher lettuce prices, which are not unusual during this time of the year, have also been impacted by cold weather, hampering growing conditions. Lettuce prices increased 34.4 percent and 24.4 percent in June 2008 and July 2007, respectively. Lettuce prices in June 2009 were lower than prices in July, August, and September of 2008.

The most significant individual downward contribution came from lower prices for oranges (down 15.3 percent).

For the year to June 2009, prices for the fruit and vegetables subgroup increased 12.7 percent. The most significant annual upward contributions came from higher prices for tomatoes (up 34.1 percent), and bananas (up 23.3 percent). The most significant downward contribution came from lower prices for potatoes (down 7.2 percent).

Graph, Fruit and Vegetables Subgroup Monthly Change.

Graph, Fruit and Vegetables Subgroup and FPI Monthly Indexes.

Grocery food

Prices for the grocery food subgroup rose 1.1 percent in the June 2009 month, following an increase of 1.0 percent in May 2009 and a decrease of 0.4 percent in April 2009.

The most significant upward contributions came from higher prices for snack foods (up 5.0 percent) and chocolate (up 5.3 percent). The increase for chocolate was influenced by a decrease in the size of some chocolate blocks.

The most significant downward contributions came from lower prices for cheddar cheese (down 2.4 percent), and eggs (down 2.8 percent).

For the year to June 2009, prices for the grocery food subgroup increased 7.9 percent. The most significant individual upward contributions came from higher prices for bread (up 14.5 percent), cakes and biscuits (up 12.0 percent), yoghurt (up 22.3 percent), and snack foods (up 11.2 percent). The most significant downward contributions came from cheddar cheese (down 16.4 percent) and butter (down 19.9 percent).

Graph, Groceary Food Subgroup Monthly Change.

Graph, Fruit and Vegetables Subgroup and FPI Monthly Indexes.

Meat, poultry and fish

Prices for the meat, poultry and fish subgroup rose 2.1 percent in the June 2009 month, following no change in May 2009 and a decrease of 0.8 percent in April 2009.

The most significant upward contribution came from higher prices for beef (up 6.2 percent), ham (up 3.8 percent), and fresh fish (up 3.2 percent). The increase in price for beef was partly attributable to high incidences of 'specialling' in the previous month.

For the year to June 2009, meat, poultry and fish prices increased 12.1 percent. The most significant individual upward contributions came from higher prices for prepared meats and smallgoods (up 18.9 percent), and beef (up 11.7 percent).

Graph, Meat Poultry and Fish Subgroup Monthly Change.

Graph, Meat Poultry and Fish Subgroup and FPI Monthly Indexes.

Other subgroups

In June 2009, higher prices were recorded for the non-alcoholic beverages subgroup (up 0.3 percent) and the restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food subgroup (up 0.1 percent).

Within these subgroups, the most significant upward contribution came from higher prices for fruit juice (up 2.5 percent).

The most significant downward contribution came from lower prices for tea (down 3.3 percent).

For the year to June 2009, prices for the restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food subgroup increased 4.3 percent, and non-alcoholic beverages increased 7.3 percent.

Graph, Selected Subgroups and FPI Monthly Indexes.

 

For technical information contact:
Russell Hewitt or Daniel Griffiths
Wellington 04 931 4600
Email: info@stats.govt.nz

Next release ...

Food Price Index: July 2009 will be released on 13 August 2009.