Food Price Index: July 2009

Commentary

Food prices in July 2009

Food prices rose 0.6 percent in July 2009, following increases of 2.8 percent and 0.3 percent in June and May 2009, respectively. 

In July 2009, higher prices were recorded for the following subgroups: fruit and vegetables (up 3.1 percent), grocery food (up 0.5 percent), restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (up 0.3 percent), and non-alcoholic beverages (up 0.3 percent). Lower prices were recorded for the meat, poultry and fish subgroup (down 0.7 percent). 

The most significant individual upward contribution came from higher prices for lettuce (up 41.6 percent), which contributed over three-quarters of the increase in the food price index (FPI). 

The most significant downward contributions came from lower prices for tomatoes (down 9.5 percent) and minced beef (down 8.2 percent)

  Index Points Contribution to Food Price Index

Monthly Index Points Contribution
Subgroup May 2009 to
June 2009

June 2009 to
July 2009

Fruit and vegetables
Meat, poultry and fish
Grocery food
Non-alcoholic beverages
Restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food
22.85
4.31
4.86
0.30
0.25

5.40
-1.55
2.42
0.31
0.80

Food price index 32.57 7.38
Note: Index points contributions may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Distribution of item-level movements

The table below outlines the distribution of price movements in July 2009 and June 2009. The FPI has been partitioned into those national item-level indexes that increased, showed no change, or decreased.

Distribution of Item-level Index Movements
National item-level index movements May 2009 to
June 2009
June 2009 to
July 2009
Increase in price
Number of items
Percentage of all items
Percentage of expenditure weight
Index points contribution
Weighted average price increase (percent)
103
65.6
67.4
38.2
4.8
93
59.2
58.1
21.2
3.0
No change in price
Number of items
Percentage of all items
Percentage of expenditure weight
4
2.5
1.8
2
1.3
1.0
Decrease in price
Number of items
Percentage of all items
Percentage of expenditure weight
Index points contribution
Weighted average price decrease (percent)
50
31.8
30.8
-5.6
1.6
62
39.5
40.9
-13.8
2.8

 

The distribution of item-level movements shows that:

  • the percentage of expenditure weight of items that increased in price fell, while the percentage of expenditure weight of items that decreased in price rose.
  • the weighted average price increase fell and the weighted average price decrease rose.

These movements resulted in a 0.6 percent increase in the July 2009 FPI, compared with a 2.8 percent increase in June 2009.

Annual movements

Food prices increased 8.4 percent in the year to July 2009, following increases of 8.4 percent and 6.8 percent in the years to June and May 2009, respectively. 

All five of the food subgroups increased in the year to July 2009. The most significant upward contribution came from higher prices for the grocery food subgroup (up 7.8 percent), followed by meat, poultry and fish (up 12.4 percent), fruit and vegetables (up 12.2 percent), restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (up 4.0 percent), and non-alcoholic beverages (up 7.1 percent).

Within these subgroups, the most significant upward contributions came from higher prices for prepared meats and smallgoods (up 19.0 percent), bread (up 13.5 percent), and cakes and biscuits (up 16.7 percent). 

The most significant downward contributions came from lower prices for cheddar cheese (down 15.9 percent), butter (down 21.6 percent), and potatoes (down 9.5 percent).

 

Annual Index Points Contribution
Subgroup July 2008 to
July 2009
Grocery food
Meat, poultry and fish
Fruit and vegetables
Restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food
Non-alcoholic beverages
33.98
22.86
19.56
9.23
8.13
Food price index 93.76
Note: Index points contributions may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Fruit and vegetables

Prices for the fruit and vegetables subgroup increased 3.1 percent in July 2009, following an increase of 15.0 percent and a decrease of 2.6 percent in June and May 2009, respectively. Higher vegetable prices (up 6.4 percent) accounted for nearly all of the 0.6 percent rise in the July 2009 FPI, while fruit prices fell 2.3 percent.

Higher vegetable prices are usual in winter, and over half of the green vegetables monitored for the FPI recorded double-digit price increases in July 2009. The most significant upward contributions came from higher prices for lettuce (up 41.6 percent) and broccoli (up 14.1 percent). Compared with May 2009, lettuce prices more than doubled in June 2009, and in July were triple those recorded in May. Although prices recorded in May 2009 were the lowest May prices for five years, prices recorded in July 2009 were the highest for a July month since 2006.

The most significant downward contributions came from lower prices for tomatoes (down 9.5 percent) and nectarines (down 20.8 percent). 

For the year to July 2009, fruit and vegetable prices increased 12.2 percent. The most significant upward contributions came from higher prices for tomatoes (up 42.1 percent) and lettuce (up 16.2 percent). The most significant downward contribution came from lower prices for potatoes (down 9.5 percent).

 Fruit and Vegetable Subgroup

 Fruit and Vegetable Subgroup

Other subgroups

Higher prices were recorded for the following subgroups: grocery food (up 0.5 percent), restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (up 0.3 percent), and non-alcoholic beverages (up 0.3 percent).

Meat, poultry and fish (down 0.7 percent) was the only subgroup that recorded a decrease in July 2009. It came off a record high in June 2009.

Within these subgroups, the most significant upward contributions came from higher prices for cakes and biscuits (up 2.5 percent), soft drinks (up 1.6 percent), and sausages (up 5.0 percent). These price rises were influenced by a high incidence of specialling in June 2009 for chocolate biscuits, large soft drinks sold at supermarkets, and sausages.

Prices for beef fell 3.9 percent in July 2009, influenced by a high incidence of price specials. Interestingly, beef prices in May 2009 where similarly influenced by specials.

 Selected Subgroup and Food Price Index

 

For technical information contact:
Louis Liu or Daniel Griffiths
Wellington 04 931 4600
Email: info@stats.govt.nz

Next release ...

Food Price Index: August 2009 will be released on 11 September 2009.